Quick Lane Bowl
North Carolina -Rutgers
Time: 3:30 PM CST
TV: ESPN
Spread: UNC -3.5
Total: 68
Betting odds courtesy of Bovada
Rutgers surely must be wondering where its season went wrong. After beginning the year 5-1, the Scarlet Knights proceeded to close the season by losing four of its final six games. Prior to the free fall, Rutgers had defeated Michigan and almost beat Penn State.
But when Big Ten play began, losses to AP ranked Ohio State and Nebraska set the tone for the collapse. A 41-38 victory over Maryland improved the Knights chances and was enough to land the Quick Lane Bowl. College football point spreads show Rutgers as 3.5 point underdogs against a tough North Carolina team that finished the season .500.
Gary Nova had his finest NCAA season this year as a senior. He upped his stats in every major category and posted a 144.6 passer rating. He had a bit of a problem with picks this season, as n years prior, throwing 12 INTs to his 20 TDs. But Nova improved his sack ratio, only succumbing to 18 sacks this season, seven less than his junior season last year. Nova threw for 2,667 yards with a 58 percent clip.
Nova’s top receiving target was Leonte Carroo, who caught for 1,043 yards this season on 53 receptions (19.7 yards per catch). Carroo also accounted for 10 of the Knights’ 20 passing TDs this season. Andrew Turzilli and Janarion Grant each contributed just over 300 yards, and Turzilli had a 93-yard TD catch this season, helping to account for his astounding 34.8 yards per catch average (313 yards on just nine receptions). Turzilli has had issues with his hamstrings, missing the last two games. He is questionable for this game, as well.
In the backfield, Rutgers turns to Desmon Peoples (115 carries), Paul James (63), Robert Martin (68) and Justin Goodwin (82). James averaged a team-best 5.8 yards per game and tied Martin for the lead in TDs with five. The Knights will have a chance to exploit UNC’s weak defense, which ranked near the bottom of NCAA D-1 schools, allowing 38.9 points per game, while scoring just 34.3 offensively.
UNC’s strength is its pass offense, which ranked No. 24 in the nation with 279 yards per game. The Tar Heels have won four of its past six following a four-game skid that included a blowout loss to East Carolina, and further trouncing from Clemson, Virginia Tech and then- No. 6 Notre Dame.
QB Marquise Williams had a phenomenal season. He threw for 62.7 percent completion and racked up 2,870 yards. Beyond that, Williams is a dual threat, having led the team in rushing by a significant margin with 737 yards on 178 carries.
Williams also scored a team high 12 rushing TDs. His stable of receivers featured four with 400 yards or more, paced by Ryan Switzer’s 703 yards this season. Mack Hollins also caught for 611 yards an a team-high eight TDs (UNC’s total this year was 27).
NCAA football lines show the over/under for this contest set at 68, a reflection of two schools that are both stacked offensively and poor defensively. Most fans know this is the recipe for an exciting game, and it should be one, airing on ESPN at 2:30 EST.
TRENDS:
RUT: The Under is 5-0 in Scarlet Knights’ last 5 vs the ACC; The Under is 4-0 in Scarlet Knights’ last 4 neutral site games; The Under is 4-0 in the Scarlet Knights’ last 4 games in Dec.
UNC: The Under is 4-0 in the Tar Heels last 4 games vs a team with a winning record; Tar Heels are 4-0 in the last 4 games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in previous game; Under is 7-1 in the last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in previous game.
Head-to-Head: Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
