Arizona Diamondbacks (47-41) AT Saint Louis Cardinals (47-41)
July 7th, 2011 at 8:15 PM EST
Opening Line:  STL -145, ARI +125
Current Line:  STL -140, ARI +120
Opening Total:  9
Current Total:  8.5

SP:  ARI- Joe Saunders; STL- Kyle McClellan

Pujols has had a rough year so far, and a broken wrist certainly didn’t make things any easier.  He returned quickly from the injury, however.  He did go just 1 of 6 Wednesday, but the MVP can’t continue to struggle like this if the Cardinals are going to be true contenders this year.  He returned nearly a month ahead of schedule from the injury, but the Cardinals lost 9-8 to the Reds on a Ramón Hernandez RBI double in the 13th inning.

It prevented the Cards from sweeping the Reds, but Pujols saw a lot of reasons for hope in the loss.  That was awesome, man,” he said. “For us to be the winning team you’re going to have to do things like that. We’re not going to give up.”

Pujols has had his way with the Diamondbacks in the past and tonight could offer a chance for the slugger to get back to his MVP-style ways.  In the last series against Arizona that Pujols participated in, he went 6 for 13 with 2 RBIs, back in mid April, and he is 12 of 27 (.444) with 5 homers in a 7 game home hitting streak against the Diamondbacks that dates back to September of 2008.

Pujols, nor any of his teammates, have ever faced Diamondbacks starter Joe Saunders, though.  In his last outing, Saunders has recorded three consecutive quality starts and only gave up 2 runs and 8 hits in a 4-2 win over the A’s on Saturday.  While he claimed he didn’t have his “A game” he said he did make some “big pitches,” and it appears that Saunders is getting the swing of things in his first full major league season.

The Diamondbacks acquired Saunders as part of the Dan Haren trade, but it appears that the Diamondbacks may have found something in Saunders that other clubs didn’t see.  While he doesn’t record many strikeouts and doesn’t have the greatest control and Baseball Prospectus considers him a “back of the rotation starter.”  His PECOTA projection for this season called for a 10-12 record with a 4.97 ERA, a projection that looks as though it may be pretty accurate, after all.

The Diamondbacks have split their 6 games so far and have 4 more road games to complete a 10 game road trip.  They dropped their last contest 3 to 1 against the Brewers last night, even though Josh Collmenter recorded 6 shutout innings.  Reliever Sam Demel blew the game for the Diamondbacks as he gave up a 3 run homer to Casey McGehee in the 7th inning.

The Cardinals will send Kyle McClellan to the mound.  McClellan is 6-5 with a 4.27 ERA this season, but has not won a decision since May 19th and is 0-4 over his last 6 starts.  In his last outing, he gave up 5 runs, all of which were scored in the sixth inning, as the Rays beat the Cards 5-1 at Tropicana field in Tampa.

“If I had to describe it, I didn’t pitch that inning the way I did all the others,” McClellan said. “You’re trying to prevent them from scoring, doing everything you can. Trying to be too perfect.”

McClellan won his first career start against Arizona on April 11th as he gave up only 1 run and 7 hits in 6 innings of an 8-2 Cardinals’ win.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone OVER In 4 of the Diamondbacks last 6 games and it has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 on the road.  The Diamondbacks are 17-8 SU in their last 25 on the road and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 against the Saint Louis Cardinals.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 road games against the Cards and the Diamondbacks are 2-7 SU In their last 9 games on the road against the Cards.

The Saint Louis Cardinals are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 at home.  The Cardinals are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home and they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Cards last 6 games at home against the Diamondbacks, while the Cardinals are 7-2 SU in their last 9 home games against the Diamondbacks.

The total is set high for this one, as neither pitcher is exactly the shut down type.  Moreover, Pujols has always done well against the Diamondbacks and should be able to help the Cardinals provide enough run support to win this one.  While 9 is a high total for this one, it is plausible that it goes over, given the fact that the two pitchers combine for an ERA over eight.