Boston Celtics AT Phoenix Suns
Jan 28th, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Boston -4.5
Current Line:  Boston -4
Opening Total: 202
Current Total: 201.5
Opening Moneyline: Bos -175 / Phx +155
Current Moneyline:  Bos -180 / Phx +150

The Celtics enter tonight’s game hot, as winners of 7 of their last 8, games which featured juggernauts Orlando and Utah.  They also eeked out a nice 10 point road win against the Blazers in which they held them to 37.8% shooting in one of the tougher arenas to play in.  The Celtics 12-7 road record is solid, but not overwhelming, which may be why NBA oddsmakers have set the line precariously close for tonight’s matchup.

The Suns, as Nash predicted, have been quite mediocre this year.  Before the season he said he didn’t see any way the Suns could contend, and his realism seems to have been right on the mark.  As losers of their past 3, the Suns sit 3.5 games behind the eighth seeded Blazers for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference, either team vying for the right to get ousted by the red hot Spurs.

Some betting trends:

Boston is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games and 9-4 SU in their last 13 road games.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against the Suns and they are 5-12 SU in their last 17 against Phoenix.  The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 7 road meetings against the Suns and Boston is 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games against Phoenix.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix’s last 5 games and they are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 at home.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 meetings against the Celtics and they are 12-5 SU in their last 17 against the Celts.  Phoenix is 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home against the Celtics and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 at home against Boston.

Key Matchups:

Rajon Rondo vs. Steve Nash

Point guard play doesn’t get much better than this.  This matchup pits the NBA’s two assist leaders (Rondo being first of course) against one another and promises to be an exciting matchup to keep an eye on.  Over the last four meetings against the Suns, Rondo is averaging 20.5 points and 9.0 assists.  With Rondo not looking to score as much this year, we can expect a line that is more heavy in assists and less heavy in points.  Nash will likely outscore Rondo, but that doesn’t mean much if the Suns can’t get big games out of other players.  Someone will have to step up and help Nash if the Suns are to have any chance.

Ray Allen vs. Vince Carter

Carter is pretty much the wild card in this game.  He’s been ridiculously inconsistent, looking like an all star one night and like a scrub the next.  Carter scored 22 last game after scoring only 26 points in the previous four games COMBINED.  Allen is a good defender and if Vince resorts to shooting fade aways and contested threes, he could be in for a rude awakening.  Allen is having another typical Ray Allen season and at age 35, nearly 36, he isn’t slowing down at all.  He’s shooting over 50% from the floor and over 45% from three, which is an improvement over his already solid seasons over the past few years.  Carter has never been good at chasing players around screens, so Allen could very well run circles around Carter and go off for a huge game.  For his career against the Suns he is averaging 22.2 points per game, 3.9 assists, and 4.6 rebounds, so the potential is there for Allen to have a huge night.

The Suns won both matchups against the Celtics last year, but that was a different team, namely because of Amar’e Stoudemire being on the roster.  The Suns are no where near the team they were that got to the WCF last year, and the Celtics should have their number tonight.