Memphis Grizzlies AT Denver Nuggets
Feb 22, 2011 at 9 PM EST
Opening Line:  Memphis -1
Current Line:  Memphis -1.5
Opening Total:  204
Current Total: 206
Opening Moneyline:  Mem -120 / Den +100
Current Moneyline:  Mem -125 / Den +105

Change is on the way for the Denver Nuggets, but tonight will be mostly an ugly transition, as the new players acquired in the blockbuster Carmelo Anthony deal will not be in uniforms yet, nor will the Nuggets obviously suit the players they dealt, which will leave them shorthanded tonight as their remaining holdover players fight for a win.

The trade that everyone had been anticipating finally happened for the Nuggets as they shipped Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, and Renaldo Balkman to New York in exchange for Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Galinari, Timofey Mozgov and three draft picks.  The Nuggets feel they got a fair return given the fact that Anthony was demanding a trade and refusing to sign an extention, making his trade value lowered by the desperation of the cause.

Some betting trends:

Memphis is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 on the road.  Memphis is 5-2 SU In their last 7 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis’ last 7 games against Denver.  Memphis is 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Denver and Memphis is 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games against the4 Nuggets.  Memphis is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games against the Nuggets.

The total has gone OVER In 4 of Denver’s lat 5 games and Denver is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.  Denver is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and 19-6 SU in their last 25 games at home.  Denver is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 at home and 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against the Grizzlies.  Denver is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Memphis and the total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games against Memphis. Denver is 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games against Memphis.

Key Matchups:

Mike Conley vs. Ty Lawson

Lawson figures to be the starting point guard for tonight’s game, but after tonight it will be very much in question as to whether he starts or newly acquired Raymond Felton.  Based on Felton’s performance this year, one would be inclined to expect Felton to start, but Denver is highly vested in Ty Lawson and he is a capable NBA starter.  His per-36 stats include 15.6 points per game, 5.6 assists per game, 1.2 steals on 50.1% field goal shooting.  He’s also 39% from three.  So let the debate begin after tonight as to who will start for Denver at point guard.  There could be a time share and there also will be times that the two see the court together.  Lawson is a superior player to Conley and should begin to show his value tonight in the matchup.  George Karl is not confident that either Lawson or Felton will be as good as former starter Chauncey Billups.  “I’m 100 percent behind the decision we made, even though it will be dangerous and there won’t be the veteran point guard back there,” Karl added. “Felton, I thought was having a great season this year. But I think Ty (Lawson) and Felton are going to have a great challenge to live up to what Chauncey has given us in past years.”  Be that all as it may, the new era begins soon, and Lawson and Felton will have to find a way to keep Denver competitive.

Marc Gasol vs. Nenê

Gasol’s numbers have come back down to earth after a fantastic 09-10 campaign.  His scoring average has dipped down to 11.8 points per game and his rebounds have fallen from 9.3 to 7.0, but the Grizzlies are committed to Gasol’s future in Memphis.  They’ve made #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet available for pennies on the dollar and are not resigning O.J. Mayo so that they can focus their efforts on retaining Gasol.  The Grizzlies know how difficult it is to find able bodied big men in the NBA.  Nenê, on the other side of the court, will be a free agent after this year, and promises to attract plenty of attention from around the league.  He’s averaging a career high 15.0 points per game and is getting his usual 1 block, 1 steal on defense, making him a two way player that will get a hefty contract after this season.  Oklahoma City could be a possible landing spot for Nenê, and it would strengthen the Thunder and make them into even more realistic contenders.

Tonight’s game is more about possible shifts in the rotation and beginning to adjust to life without Carmelo Anthony.  It’s doubtful that winning will be the only M.O. for the Nuggets tonight.