Tip off: 8:35 PM EST
Spread: SAS -5.5
Total: 196
M/L: SAS -240, HOU +200
The Rockets have surged to 12-9 after winning 9 of their last 11 games in January. They dropped last game to a much improved Minnesota Timberwolves team, mainly due to the fact that their defense was nearly non existent. Ricky Rubio battered the Rockets for a near-triple double (2 rebounds shy) and Kevin Love was his usual dominant self, going for 29. The Rockets must improve their interior defense to prevent guards like Rubio from demolishing them after they break past their initial defender. Tony Parker will pose similar problems for the Rockets tonight, despite the fact that Kyle Lowry is a top notch defender.
The Spurs were dealt what many thought would be a death blow when they lost Manu Ginobili in the midst of what might have been a career year for the Argentine guard. Stepping up in his place has been perennial All Star Tony Parker. Parker is averaging 16.7 points per game this year, leading a Spurs team that has no other players averaging over 13 points per game. Tiago Splitter, a Brazillian center, has been coming along nicely over the last stretch of games and should prove to be a nice replacement when Tim Duncan eventually does decide to retire.
Rockets Betting Trends:
Houston is 9-2 SU over their last 11 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 games. It has also gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 on the road, and they are 3-6 SU in their last 9 on the road.
Spurs Betting Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the Spurs last 12 games. It has also gone UNDER in all 5 of their last 5 at home and they are 12-1 SU in their last 13 at home. The total has gone OVER in 7 of their last 10 against the Houston Rockets.
Key Matchup:
Kyle Lowry vs. Tony Parker
In my pieces for Yahoo! Sports, I have discussed how Lowry very well might be the best point guard in the game. While he still has some improvements to make (namely his shooting) before that could be said with full confidence, his play made Aaron Brooks expendable last season and he has continued to get better still. Parker, though, is one guy who has the speed to cover Lowry, and with Splitter and Duncan hiding in the paint, Lowry is going to have trouble getting off his mid range jumpers. Lowry is an excellent rebounder in the mold of Rajon Rondo though, so Parker will have to be careful not to let Lowry track down too many long rebounds and thus earn the Rockets too many second chance points.
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