Saint Louis Cardinals (29-20) AT San Diego Padres
May 24, 2011 at 10:05 PM EST
Opening Moneyline: STL -140, SD +120
Current Moneyline: STL -132, SD +112
Opening Total: 6.5
Current Total: 6.5
SP: STL- K. McClellan; SD- A. Harang
Kyle McClellan is blowing all expectations out of the water and has the chance to be the first seven game winner in the majors tonight. McClellan was not projected to be a starter to open the year and was predicted to pitch only 56 innings by Baseball Prospectus. A season ending injury to Adam Wainright opened the role up for McClellan. His PECOTA projection seems to be dead on. McClellan is 3.43 on the year and was projected to be 3.75.
McClellan impressed on Thursday of last week, giving up only two runs and five hits in eight innings, while throwing only 90 pitches. The Cards won the game 4-2 over the Astros.
“I don’t know what my pitch count was, but I thought I was throwing a lot of strikes,” McClellan said Thursday. “That’s when I’m at my best, locating down in the zone.”
In his five appearances (all in relief duty) at Petco Park in San Diego, McClellan has posted a 1.69 ERA and he should continue the dominance today given the fact that the Padres are 8-19 at home and are batting .202 at their own stadium. San Diego has failed to score more than one run in all five of their last five home games, with one of those five games being a shutout.
Cardinals’ slugger Albert Pujols is continuing to make his efforts to break out of his season long slump. He’s batting just .268, .061 below his career average and he has only eight homer runs and 26 RBIs. At Petco, however, he has homered in three of his last five games.
“You watch, he’s making contact like that. He might not have the first 10 days of the season,” Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa said. “After that he’s made contact. He just keeps hitting it hard. They’re pitching him like he’s hitting .350, so every at-bat’s a tough one for him.”
Aaron Harang will take the mound for the Padres. He’s been decent to passable so far this season with a 4.31 ERA. He has won 5 of his 7 decisions oddly enough. Harang held the Brewers scoreless over eight innings…but the Padres failed to score a run for him, going 0 of 5 with runners in scoring position.
This season at home, Harang is 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA but has received one run or less in three of his last four, including the two losses. His PECOTA projection predicts a 12-11 record with a 4.34 ERA, a line that seems accurate in ERA but with the lack of run production he may have trouble even reaching double digits in wins.
Some betting trends:
The Cardinals are 11-6 (+3.4 units) against the Padres over the last three seasons and 9 of the 17 games over that span have gone OVER the total.
The Padres are 2-1 against the Cardinals this season and 2 of the 3 games have gone OVER the total. In Petco, at home, the Padres are 3-4 (-0.4 units) against the Cardinals over the last three seasons and 5 of the 7 games have gone UNDER the total.
Kyle McClellan is the better pitcher at this point in Harang’s career and is the main reason the Cardinals are favored in this matchup. Pujols has hit well at Petco so this could be a breakout game for him…if so, expect the Cardinals to win this one handily.
