Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
US Airways Center – Phoenix, Arizona
Saturday, April 21, 2012, 5:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Phoenix -4 1/2
Current Line: Phoenix -4
Opening Total: 210 1/2
Current Total: 210 1/2
Opening Money Line: Suns -220 / Nuggets +175
Current Money Line: Suns -220 / Nuggets +175
Six teams have already clinched spots in the Western Conference Playoffs with only a handful of games left in the regular season. That means that 4 teams are in contending for two spots.
The 34-28 Denver Nuggets, coached by George Karl, are in the best position of the four as they hold a 1.5 game lead over Phoenix and Utah for the last spot. Rapidly fading Houston trails Phoenix and Utah by a game, but the Rockets have lost 6 games in a row. Phoenix and Utah are both 33-30, but Phoenix holds the tiebreaker. The Suns are coached by Alvin Gentry.
The Nuggets and Suns will meet in a crucial game Saturday in Phoenix. A win for the Nuggets would clinch a playoff berth. Phoenix can’t clinch a playoff spot with a win, but can’t solidify their spot. Denver has beaten Phoenix 5 straight times dating back to last year. However until last year, Denver had lost 12 straight games in Phoenix. The Nuggets won both previous meetings this season, both in Denver. Denver won 109-92 on Valentine’s Day and 105-99 April 6. This is the last scheduled meeting between the teams this season.
The Nuggets are 4-2 in their last 6, but lost at home 104-98 at home to the Clippers Wednesday night. The Suns have gone 4-3 in their last 7, but did beat the Clippers 93-90 Thursday night at home.
The Nuggets are outscoring opponents 104-102 this season. Denver leads the league in points scored but is #28 in points allowed. The Nuggets are shooting 47.1% from the field and 32.9% from 3 point range. Denver is #4 in field goal percentage. The Nuggets make 73.5% of their free throws. Denver is #7 in rebounding averaging 43.1 a game with a rebounding margin of +2.6. The Nuggets average 23.8 assists, 15.5 turnovers, 8.2 steals, and 5 blocks a game. Denver leads the league in assists. Nugget opponents are shooting 45.7% from the field and 38.4% from 3 point range. Denver forces 15.6 turnovers a game.
Denver point guard Ty Lawson averages 16.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. He leads the team in scoring and steals. Guard Arron Afflalo averages 15.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.4 assists a game. Small forward Danilo Gallinari averages 14.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1 steal a game. Power forward Al Harrington averages 14.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. Center Nene was traded to Wizards last month for JaVale McGee. McGee leads the Nuggets in blocks with 1.6 and averages 5.8 rebounds a game. Andre Miller, Kenneth Faried, McGee, and Corey Brewer all average at least 8.8 points a game. Miller leads the Nuggets in assists with 6.6 a game. Faried leads the team in rebounds with 7.4 a game. Forward Wilson Chandler and Guard Rudy Fernandez are both out for the season.
The Suns are outscoring opponents 98.3-98.1 this season. Phoenix is #8 in scoring. The Suns are shooting 45.9% from the field and 34.3% from 3 point range. Phoenix is #6 in field goal percentage. The Suns make 75.9% from the free throw line. Phoenix averages 41.6 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of -1.7. The Suns average 22.6 assists, 14 turnovers, 6.6 steals, and 5.5 blocks a game. Phoenix opponents are shooting 45.3% from the field and 35.1% from 3 point range. The Suns force 14.2 turnovers a game.
Phoenix Center Marcin Gortat averages 15.7 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks a game. He leads the Suns in all 3 categories. Forward Jared Dudley averages 12.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. Point guard Steve Nash averages 12.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists a game to lead the team. Remarkably, the 38 year old Nash is second in the league in assists, behind only Rajon Rando of the Celtics. Center Channing Frye averages 10.6 points, 6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.1 blocks a game. Guard Shannon Brown averages 10.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.1 assists a game. Forward Grant Hill averages 10.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists a game. He has missed the last 3 games with knee soreness but is listed as probable against Denver Saturday. Ronnie Price leads the Suns in steals with 1 a game.
Phoenix is 34-29 ATS this season and the total is 24-39. Denver is 32-30 ATS this season and the total is 30-31-1. The home team in this series is 19-6-1 ATS recently and 8 of the last 11 have gone under the total. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 5-1 after failing to cover, 27-9 as a road underdog, and in road games against teams with winning home records, 11-4 in Saturday games, 29-11 as an underdog, 7-3 as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less, 35-16 in road games, 4-10 against Western Conference teams, and 1-4 as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Suns are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite, 5-0 as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 11-1 as a favorite, 12-3 at home, 5-2 in Saturday games, 9-4 on 1 day rest, 20-9 overall, 1-4 after a win and a cover.
Both these teams struggle to make 3’s and defend against the 3 as well. Phoenix has been red hot at home since the All-Star break. Both teams will control their own destiny for the playoffs regardless of what happens here, but I think Phoenix needs it more. Denver is almost assured of a playoff spot, and will clinch with their next win. However, Phoenix is trying to hold off Utah and Houston for the last spot. I like Phoenix to win a close high scoring shootout.
