Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Saturday, December 3, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Pitt -11 1/2
Current Line: Pitt -10
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 47
Opening Money Line: Pitt -400 / Syracuse +330
Current Money Line: Pitt -375 / Syracuse +315

Both Syracuse and Pittsburgh are 5-6 this season as they battle in the season finale at Heinz Field. The winner will be be bowl eligible, and the season ends for the loser. Syracuse has lost 4 games in a row under coach Doug Marrone. Pittsburgh has lost 4 of their last 6 games under coach Todd Graham. Both Syracuse and Pitt will leave the Big East in the next year or two for the ACC. In a series that dates back to 1916, Pitt leads Syracuse 33-30-3 including 19-11 in Pittsburgh. The Panthers have won six straight against the Orange including 45-14 last year in Syracuse.

Syracuse was a 2 point underdog at home last week to Cincinnati last week on the college football betting line. The Orange were down 10-6 at halftime, and 23-6 late in the third quarter. The Orange pulled to within 10 points at 23-13 but the Bearcats ended up winning 30-13. Syracuse had the only turnover in the game and there were 14 total penalties. The Orange had 373 total yards including 203 passing yards from quarterback Ryan Nassib who had a touchdown and an interception. Running back Antwon Bailey had 27 carries for 135 yards, plus 5 catches for 43 yards. Receiver Van Chew had 6 catches for 77 yards. Nick Provo had 3 catches, 47 yards and a touchdown. Cincinnati had 368 total yards and 189 rushing yards.

Syracuse is averaging 348.5 yards a game including 228 passing yards and 120.5 rushing yards a game. The Orange are averaging 24.5 points a game. The Orange have 13 turnovers and have allowed 26 sacks this season. Syracuse is 76/179 on third and fourth down conversions, and 37/47 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. The Orange are allowing 391.3 total yards a game including 258.2 passing yards and 133.1 rushing yards. Syracuse is allowing 28.1 points a game. The Orange have forced 20 turnovers and 24 sacks this season. Syracuse opponents are 76/172 on third and fourth down conversions, and 35/41 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. The Orange have two defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.

Nassib is 236/383 passing (61.6% completion) with 2,460 yards, 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He also has 2 rushing touchdowns. Bailey has 222 carries, 998 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 24 catches for 157 yards. Back-up Prince Tyson-Gulley is out for the season with a broken collarbone, but he only had 18 carries for 89 yards. Receiver Alec Lemon has 60 catches, 735 yards and 6 touchdowns. Provo has 46 catches, 500 yards, and 7 touchdowns.  Chew has 35 catches, 456 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Dorian Graham has 24 catches and 2 touchdowns, plus a kickoff return for a touchdown. Kicker Ross Krautman is 31/32 on extra points and 13/17 on field goals with a long of 40 yards. Eleven players are listed as questionable, doubtful, or out for the Orange.

Last week, Pittsburgh was a 7 point underdog at West Virginia in the annual “Backyard Brawl.” The Panthers jumped out to a 14-0 lead after the first quarter. However, Pitt could only manage 2 field goals for the rest of the game. Pitt took a 20-7 early in the third quarter, but West Virginia scored 14 straight points to take a 21-20 lead with 6:10 to go. Pitt had two more possessions after that but never advanced past their own 46. The Mountaineers escaped with the 21-20 win to remain alive for the Big East title and a BCS berth. Pitt had 9 penalties for 60 yards and a turnover. West Virginia had 3 turnovers. The Panthers had 296 total yards including 159 rushing yards. Pitt quarterback Tino Sunseri threw for 137 yards and an interception. Isaac Bennett had 16 carries, 69 yards, and a touchdown, plus two catches for 23 yards. Zach Brown had 15 carries, 67 yards, and a touchdown, plus a catch for 4 yards. West Virginia had 357 yards including 244 passing yards.

Pitt has averaged 364.8 yards a game including 158.7 rushing yards and 206.1 passing yards this season. Pitt is scoring 25.1 points a game.  The Panthers have allowed 52 sacks and have 19 turnovers so far this season. They are 60/174 on third and fourth downs this season and 36/39 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns. On defense Pitt has allowed 355.7 yards, including 121.7 rushing yards and 234 passing yards a game. The Panthers are allowing 22.6 points a game.  They have forced 14 turnovers and 36 sacks this season. Pittsburgh opponents are 60/183 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/30 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. Pitt has 3 special teams touchdowns this season.

Sunseri is 203/323 (62.8% completion) passing with 2,174 yards, 9 touchdowns and and 9 interceptions so far this season, along with 134 carries for 139 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Back-up Trey Anderson has 3 interceptions in his 33 attempts, but is out indefinitely with a wrist injury. Ray Graham was the star of the offense with 164 carries for 958 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 30 catches for 200 yards. He is out for the season with a torn ACL. Brown has 82 carries for 336 yards, and 5 touchdowns along with 25 catches for 184 yards. Brown is questionable with a sternum injury. Bennett has 35 carries, 164 yards, and 2 touchdowns, plus 5 catches for 26 yards. Receiver Devin Street has 43 catches, 622 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Street is probable with a leg injury. Mike Shanahan (no relation to the Redskins coach of the same name) has 32 catches for 413 yards and 4 touchdowns. Hubie Graham has 25 catches for 295 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Cameron Saddler has 19 catches for 207 yards and 1 touchdown. He is also out for the season with a broken sternum.  Kicker Kevin Harper has made 29 of 30 extra points and has made  15 out of 23 field goals. He has a long of 52 yards. The Panthers have 8 players out for the season including 4 skill position players and 2 offensive linemen.

Pitt is 6-5 against the spread and the total is 4-7 this season. Syracuse is 3-8 ATS and the total is 7-4 this season. Pitt is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 against Syracuse. The Orange are 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-10 points, 4-1 in December, 6-14 after a double digit loss at home, 2-5 against teams with losing records, and after scoring 20 points or less, 1-4 after an ATS loss, 0-4 after a straight up loss, in conference games, on the road, as an underdog, and overall. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS overall, 6-1-1 against a team with a losing record, 6-1 in December, 5-1 after a cover, 14-3 after a straight up loss, 4-1 at home and on grass, 19-7 in conference, and 1-4 as a favorite.

Though Pitt is probably the better team especially at home, I think they are too inconsistent to be favored by 10 points over anyone. College football handicappers agree with me as the line opened at -11 1/2 and has dropped to 10 points. I see Pitt winning  a close low scoring affair and qualifying for a bowl game.

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