There are 32 teams in the NFL and about 33% have new coaches! Head coaches tend to be tough guys to figure out—part disciplinarian, part guru, part psychologist and part military general—successful coaches can be contradictory enigmas. Although last season was all about the quarterback shift as rookie and vet signal callers changed the fates of various teams, this season is about massive shake ups is in the coaching ranks. Of course, it’s almost a cliché to say that an owner can’t fire an entire team so they simply fire the coach, creating a scapegoat. That being said, in this two-part blog I’ll take a look at each of the new coaches. First, I’ll start with the five who have the best shot at getting their team into the playoffs in their first at the helm season.
Jim Caldwell and the Indianapolis Colts (Playoffs: Definitely)
Caldwell may have his first job as a head coach in the NFL, but he’s had plenty of experience as the head coach of Wake Forest and as a coordinator and assistant head coach for the Colts. With seven years under Tony Dungy, the Colts’ former head coach, and in the Indianapolis organization, he’s no stranger to the system, players or administration. All of that weighs heavily in his favor as does the fact that Peyton Manning is his quarterback. If the Colts didn’t make the playoffs under Caldwell, it would be one of the biggest stories of the season and cause major shockwaves amongst the Colts’ faithful. Caldwell still has work to do and success is never guaranteed in the NFL. If anything, he’ll need to distance himself from Dungy, assert his own vision and feel free to be himself and not just a Dungy clone. Caldwell has more pressure than any other new coach to make the playoffs and go deep into the post-season.
Rex Ryan of the New York Jets (Playoffs: Likely)
Ryan starts his rookie season as a head coach by inheriting a good team with a lot of potential, but he also gets a club that is without last year’s starting quarterback Brett Favre. Does Ryan do what a few teams did successfully last season and start rookie QB Mark Sanchez? Or does he go with Kellen Clemens who enters his fourth year as a pro. In 2007, Clemens played in 10 games for the Jets, tossing 5 TDs and 10 INTs. In those 10 contests, he connected on 52.0% of his throws. Other possibilities at QB include Brett Ratliff and Erik Ainge. On defense, Ryan will go with an aggressive posture. He’s going to attack quarterbacks and try to create scoring opportunities with his defense. The Jets just missed the post-season last year. But don’t forget, last season they did not have to deal with a Brady-driven Pats team. With Brady back in uniform, Ryan’s job becomes tougher.
Eric Mangini of the Cleveland Browns (Playoffs: Likely)
I had a hard time with the Browns hiring of Mangini after he was unable to get the job done in New York. Additionally, I found it strange that Cleveland fired one Bill Belicheck protégé, Romeo Crennel, to hire another. The Browns are a team that certainly has talent. But they have wasted that talent due to a lack of discipline both on and off the field. Mangini is a micromanager who offers this team fine organizational skills and intensity. He should find Cleveland a more comfortable fit than he did New York. Additionally helpful is the fact that he now has two years of NFL head coaching experience under his belt and that he is no longer in the division of his mentor. He’s a smart guy and should be able to use some of those hard knock lessons her learned with the Jets to benefit his new team.
Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos (Playoffs: Possibly)
It will be a strange view of the Bronco’s sideline minus the polished, intense, always-pressed look of former head coach Mike Shanahan. Instead you’re going to see the rugged, youthful countenance of former New England Patriot offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels should do well in terms of working with his new team and getting them to generate points. However, he comes to a Denver team that is deficient when it comes to defense. New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, formerly of the 49ers, is expected to institute a 3- 4 scheme. There’s definitely going to be an adjustment period on “D.” Also, you can’t discount the fact that McDaniels sports a much different personality than Shanahan. Shanahan, who was the headman at Denver for 14 years, was controlling and autocratic. The entire organization will need to adjust to McDaniels way of doing things as a head coach. McDaniels must also adjust to his way of doing things as this is his initial attempt at being at the helm of a NFL team.
Jim Mora and the Seattle Seahawks (Playoffs: A BIG maybe)
Okay, I know that you must be shaking your head on this one. But the fact is the Seahawks are in a relatively weak division, which is helpful, and Mora has a decent team. True—he’ll have to contend with Arizona and that won’t be easy but it also won’t be impossible. Mora is the former head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. Although his tenure started off well, Mora did not have a very successful run as the headman of the Falcons from 2004- 2006. Chalk that up to experience that he can utilize in his new job. Along with having taken some tough knocks, another thing in his favor is the experience he’s had as an assistant head coach with the Seahawks from 2007- 2008. Some wonder if the team is in need of rebuilding or if last year’s disappointing season was a result of innumerable injuries that took down wideouts and the Seattle quarterback. I’m thinking last season was all about injury and am leaning towards Mora’s energy, focus and enthusiasm helping to propel this hungry team into the post-season.
In Part II, I’ll take a look at six other coaches who will find it tougher to make a run at the Super Bowl in 2009.
