Phoenix Suns AT Sacramento Kings
January 2nd, 2011 at 9:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Phoenix -4
Current Line: Phoenix -5
Opening Total: 208.5
Current Total: 206
Opening Moneyline: Phoenix -200 / Sacramento +170
Current Moneyline: Phoenix -225 / Sacramento +185
Phoenix has been struggling lately, as winners of just 3 of their past 10, but Sacramento has struggled even worse, as winners in just 1 of their past 10. Sacramento is 4-14 on the road and NBA oddsmakers have actually set the line close at an opening spread of 4 points in Phoenix’s favor. Phoenix is usually a tough team at home, but are just 1 game better than .500 at home this year at 8-7. They are 4-2 against the division though and Sacramento has not won a single game against the Pacific Division.
Phoenix actually played defense in their last outing, beating Detroit as they held them to 41% field goal shooting. Dragic commented on the change in their philosophy, “We didn’t care about offense because you figure if you can defend, you can score every time. Everybody was engaged, everyone was pressuring. Rotation was good. Hopefully we’re going to play like this in the future.”
It won’t take that kind of defense to beat Sacramento, but they still have a good young core and are capable of beating teams. Second year guard Tyreke Evans is having his problems shooting and rookie center DeMarcus Cousins is turning the ball over a lot, but the Kings do have hope for their future and insisted that they are committed to that duo as part of their core for the future.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix’s past 6 games and they have lost 4 of their last 5. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games and they have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road. They have, however, beat Sacramento 5 times in a row and the total has gone UNDER in all 5 of those games. It has also gone UNDER in 6 of their past 8 games in Sacramento.
Sacramento has won only 1 of their last 6 home games and are 1-4-1 ATS in those games. The total has gone OVER in 6 of their past 9 at home.
Key Matchups:
Steve Nash vs. Beno Udrih
Nash struggled last game and played only 20 minutes, but there is no real reason to expect that to continue. Even at his advanced age, he is still quicker than Beno Udrih and last game against Sacramento Nash went for 28 points, 7 rebounds and 14 assists, a near triple double. Udrih isn’t crafty enough defensively to throw anything at Nash he hasn’t seen a million times before and he won’t have any problem “breaking” Udrih’s ankles in getting into the paint. That will create for Hakim Warrick, Marcin Gortat, and Robin Lopez. Gortat just arrived in a trade and has been playing decent ball but likely will improve even more as he gets used to playing with Nash in the Phoenix offense.
Robin Lopez & Marcin Gortat vs. DeMarcus Cousins & Samuel Dalembert
It’s tough to say which tandem has the advantage here. Cousins is the most talented offensively of the four players, but the weakest defensively, as Dalembert, Gortat, and Lopez are all good defenders. Lopez and Gortat form a powerful duo both capable of blocking shots. They will have to avoid foul trouble, though, or the game could swing in Sacramento’s favor. Cousins will have to avoid turning the ball over. He’s averging 2.4 turnovers a game in only 25 minutes of play. Gortat and Lopez are good enough to frusterate Cousins offensively and if he turns the ball over too much the Kings’ offense will flounder.
NBA Oddsmakers have set the line pretty close on this one, but it’s hard to imagine Phoenix losing to the lowly Kings, even at the Arco Arena. Nash tends to have big games against the Kings and they just don’t have anyone to stop him from getting off for a big game.
