#17 Arizona State Sun Devils at #14 UCLA Bruins
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Saturday, November 23, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Arizona State -2
Current Line: Arizona State -2 1/2
Opening Total: 61 1/2
Current Total: 62
Opening Money Line: ASU -145 / UCLA +125
Current Money Line: ASU -135 / UCLA +115
Both the Arizona State Sun Devils and UCLA Bruins are 8-2 this season. Both control their own destiny for the Pac 12 South Division and a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game. The Sun Devils are 6-1 in conference and will clinch the title with a win against UCLA Saturday in the Rose Bowl. UCLA is 5-2 and will clinch the title with wins versus Arizona State and crosstown rival USC next week. The Trojans are also 5-2 but need to win out and hope Arizona State loses to UCLA and Arizona next week.
UCLA leads the series 18-10-1 against ASU. The Bruins have won three of the last four meetings between the schools including the last two games by a total of 3 points. UCLA won last year in Tempe in a 45-43 thriller.
Ariz0na State is coached by Todd Graham. The Sun Devils have home wins over Sacramento State 55-50, Wisconsin 32-30, USC 62-41, Colorado 54-13, Washington 53-24 and last week against Oregon State 30-17, along with road wins at Washington State 55-21 and Utah 20-19. ASU has won 5 straight games. Arizona State has a road loss at Stanford 42-28 and against Notre Dame 37-34 in Arlington Texas. The Sun Devils are 5-5 ATS and the total is 7-3 this season. ASU was a 13.5 point favorite against Oregon State and the total was 65.
Arizona State took a 20-0 lead against Oregon State early in the second quarter but missed a PAT that would later prove to be important for bettors. The Beavers would pull to within 20-10 by the end of the third quarter. The Sun Devils expanded the lead to 30-10 with 5:08 left on 23 yard pick six. Oregon State scored a touchdown with 2:41 left to make it 30-17 and get inside the 13.5 point spread. The Beavers tried an onside kick but the Sun Devils recovered it, and ran out the clock. ASU had 339 total yards including 156 rushing yards. Oregon State had 390 total yards including 320 passing yards. Oregon State had 7 penalties for 69 yards. The Beavers had five turnovers and the Sun Devils had two.
Arizona State is outscoring teams 42-24. ASU is #9 in scoring nationally. The Sun Devils are averaging 475.3 yards per game, including 292.6 passing and 182.7 rushing yards. ASU is #22 nationally in passing and #23 in total offense. On defense, the Sun Devils are allowing 338.4 yards per game, including 217.8 passing yards and 120.6 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are #16 in total defense and #17 in rush defense. The Sun Devils are +10 in turnovers with 25 takeaways. ASU is 71/164 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 62/167. ASU averages 30 penalty yards per game and opponents average 60. Arizona State has forced 25 sacks this season but has allowed 27. The Sun Devils are 53/58 scoring in the red zone with 37 touchdowns and opponents are 26/30 with 19 touchdowns. The Sun Devils have allowed two defensive touchdowns this season and have forced three pick sixes .
ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly has completed 62.4% of his passes for 2,838 yards with 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, and also has 92 carries for 312 yards and 7 touchdowns. Back-up Michael Eubank has two rushing touchdowns.
Running back Marion Grice has 173 carries, 901 yards and 14 touchdowns, along with 43 catches, 366 yards and 6 touchdowns. Deantre Lewis and R.J. Robinson will each get a few carries a game, and each has a rushing touchdown. Receiver Jaelen Strong has 59 catches, 834 yards and 5 touchdowns. Running back D.J. Foster has 50 catches for 523 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 175 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. Chris Coyle has 24 catches, 370 yards and 4 scores. Kevin Ozier has 18 catches for 287 yards and a touchdown. Two defensive players in the front 7 are out for the season.
UCLA is coached by Jim Mora, Jr. The Bruins have losses at Stanford 24-10 and at home against Oregon 42-14 after a 5-0 start. UCLA has home wins over Nevada 58-20, New Mexico State 59-13, California 37-10, Colorado 45-23 and last week against Washington 41-21, along with road wins at Nebraska 41-21, Utah 34-27 and at Arizona 31-26. UCLA has won 3 straight games. The Bruins are 7-3 ATS this season and the total is 4-6 this season. UCLA was a 3 point favorite against Washington last week and the total was 61.
UCLA took a 20-7 lead in the first quarter against Washington last Friday night, but the Bruins missed an extra point. The Bruins expanded the lead to 27-7 early in the second. Washington then scored 17 straight points to pull within 27-24 early in the third. UCLA also scored a touchdown in the third to make it 24-24 going into the fourth. The teams also exchanged touchdowns in the fourth to make it 41-31 Bruins with 8:01 left in the fourth. The Huskies would have three more drives but two of them ended in interceptions. UCLA had 406 total yards including 222 rushing yards. Washington had 432 total yards including 330 passing yards. The two teams combined for 19 penalties for 209 yards. The Huskies had four turnovers and the Bruins had two.
UCLA is outscoring teams 37-24. The Bruins are #23 in scoring and #40 in points allowed nationally. UCLA is averaging 457.8 yards per game including 255.8 passing and 202 rushing. The Bruins are #44 or better nationally in all three categories. On defense, UCLA is allowing 393.6 yards per game including 225.4 passing and 168.2 rushing. UCLA is +7 in turnovers with 21 takeaways. The Bruins average 80 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 58. UCLA is 82/160 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 65/172. The Bruins have forced 20 sacks and allowed 23 this season. UCLA is 43/48 with 35 touchdowns and opponents are 31/39 with 23 touchdowns. The Bruins have a punt return for a touchdown and have allowed a pick six.
UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 67.8% of his passes for 2,384 yards with 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 120 carries for 502 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. He also caught a touchdown pass. Running back Paul Perkins has 112 carries 476 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 187 yards. Jordan James has 80 carries for 471 yards with 5 touchdowns. He is questionable Saturday with an ankle injury after missing the last three games. Malcolm Jones has 48 carries, 238 yards and 3 carries, along with 3 catches, 51 yards and a touchdown. Linebacker Myles Jack has 19 carries for 179 yards and 5 touchdowns Steven Manfro has 18 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. He is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Receiver Shaquelle Evans has 36 catches, 524 yards and 7 touchdowns. Devin Fuller has 40 catches, 453 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with a touchdown pass to Hundley. Jordan Payton has 27 catches, 336 yards, and a touchdown. Thomas Duarte has 15 catches for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns. Four defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
Arizona State is 7-3 ATS on grass, 4-9 after failing to cover, 15-34-3 against teams with winning home records, 2-5 after a straight up win and in road games, 2-8 in November, and 1-5 after allowing more than 280 passing yards.
UCLA is 5-0 ATS after scoring more than 40 points, 6-1 after a straight up win, 5-1 after a cover, 4-1 at home and after rushing for 200 yards or more, 13-4 against teams with winning road records, 6-2 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 5-2 on grass, and 7-3 overall. The home team is 5-1 ATS in this series recently. The Bruins are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 against the Sun Devils including 5-0 in Pasadena.
Both of these teams have explosive offenses. Arizona State is better on defense. The Bruins are banged up on defense, and the offensive line, as well as in the running backs. Hundley and Kelly are two of the best quarterbacks in the Pac 12 and this should be an offensive shootout. I like Arizona State to win on the road but it will be very close.
