Pac 12 Quarterfinals
#5 Colorado Buffaloes vs #4 Arizona Wildcats
Thursday, March 14, 2013, 5:30 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
MGM Grand Arena – Las Vegas, Nevada
Opening Line: Arizona -4
Current Line: Arizona -5
Opening Total: 129
Current Total: 129 1/2
Opening Money Line: Arizona -190 / Colorado +160
Current Money Line: Arizona -215 / Colorado +185
The 21-10 Colorado Buffaloes opened the Pac 12 tournament with a 74-68 win over Oregon St in the first round. Many say that win was enough to put the Buffaloes into the NCAA tournament. Colorado gets another shot to impress the selection committee as they take on the 18th ranked #4 seed Arizona Wildcats in the quarterfinals Thursday afternoon. The Wildcats are 24-6 this season. Colorado was 10-8 in the regular season and was the #5 seed. Arizona was 12-6 and part of three way tie for second behind UCLA, along with Cal and Oregon. The Wildcats were seeded 4th via the tiebreaker.
Colorado leads the series 11-7 against Arizona including 2-1 in neutral site games. The teams split the regular season series this year. The two teams opened Pac 12 play against each other January 3 in Tucson. In that game the Wildcats came into the game undefeated and ranked #3 in the country. Arizona trailed in that game by as many as 17 points, and were down 10 with 1:55 to go. The Wildcats tied it up to send it into overtime. Colorado had a shot to win at the buzzer, but officials reviewed it and said it was still in the shooter’s hands at the buzzer. The Wildcats would go on to win 92-83 in overtime. Colorado won in Boulder 71-58 on Valentine’s Day. Colorado beat Arizona in last year’s Pac 12 title game.
Colorado is coached by Tad Boyle. Colorado has additional losses at Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Arizona St, and Washington, Cal twice, Utah, Arizona St and UCLA. The Buffaloes have key wins over Dayton, Baylor and Murray St in a tournament in Charleston, at home against Air Force, Colorado St, USC, and Stanford twice, Arizona and Utah, along with road wins at Fresno St and Washington St, Oregon twice, and Oregon St. Colorado is 16-12-1 ATS and the total is 6-16 this season.
Colorado is outscoring teams 68-63 this season. The Buffaloes are shooting 43.8% from the field and 33.3% from 3 point range. The Buffaloes make 68.1% of their free throws. Colorado averages 37.1 rebounds per game and give up 30.9 to opponents. Buffaloes’ opponents are shooting 40.2% from the field and 32.4% from 3 point range. Colorado is averaging 10 assists, 7 steals, 3 blocks, and 13 turnovers per game.
Colorado guard Spencer Dinwiddie averages 15.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Guard Askia Booker averages 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Josh Scott averages 10.7 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Andre Roberson averages 10.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. He is questionable with the flu, after missing the last two games. Xavier Johnson averages 8.7 points and 4.8 rebounds. Sabatino Chen averages 4.7 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists. Jeremy Adams, Xavier Talton, Shane Harris-Tunks and Eli Stalzer make up the rest of the rotation, but none play more than 10 minutes a game.
Arizona is coached by Sean Miller. The Wildcats have additional losses at Oregon, UCLA twice, California, and at USC. The Wildcats swept every other team in the Pac 12. Arizona beat Arizona St Saturday in Tucson 73-58 to close out the regular season. The Wildcats have non-conference wins over UTEP, Long Beach St, at Texas Tech, Southern Miss, at Clemson, Florida, Miami-(FL) and San Diego St (both in a tournament in Hawaii.) Arizona is 13-15 ATS and the total is 8-16-1 ATS this season.
Arizona is outscoring teams 73-63 this season. Arizona is #48 in scoring nationally. The Wildcats are shooting 45% from the field and 36.3% from 3 point range. Arizona is 30th in free throw shooting at 74.4% from the line. The Wildcats average 36.4 rebounds per game, and are 16th in rebounds allowed with 26.5 per game. Arizona opponents are shooting 41.6% from the field and 36.5% from 3 point range. The Wildcats average 14 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks, and 13 turnovers a game.
Guard Mark Lyons averages 14.9 points, 3.0 assists, and 1.9 rebounds per game. Forward Solomon Hill averages 13.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Guard Nick Johnson averages 11.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2 steals per game. Guard-forward Kevin Parrom averages 8.7 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. Brandon Ashley averages 7.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Kaleb Tarczewski averages 6.6 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Grant Jarrett and Jordin Mayes make up the rest of the rotation.
Colorado is 12-3-1 ATS in neutral site games, 8-2 against teams with winning records, and 20-7 in Thursday games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS recently in this series.
Arizona is 6-13 ATS overall and in Pac 12 games, 4-9 after a straight up win, 4-11 against teams with winning records, 1-5 after a cover, and 0-5 in Thursday games. The under is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series.
Both of these teams are evenly matched, and Colorado feels they should have two wins this season against Arizona. They don’t but they did dominate for stretches of the first game and for teh whole game in Boulder. I like Colorado to pull off the mild upset.
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