Colorado Buffaloes at Washington Huskies
Husky Stadium – Seattle, Washington
Saturday, October 15, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Root RM & NW
Opening Line: Washington -14
Current Line: Washington -15 1/2
Opening Total: 58 1/2
Current Total: 58
Opening Money Line: Washington -560 / Colorado +460
Current Money Line: Washington -650 / Colorado +475
It has been a rough entry into the Pac 12 for Colorado as they are 1-5 this season and 0-2 in conference under first year coach Jon Embree. In fairness, Colorado has played a very difficult schedule so far. The only win came in Denver against instate rival Colorado St 28-14. The Buffaloes have losses at Hawaii 34-17, at home to Callifornia 36-33 in overtime, at Ohio St 37-17, at home against Washington St 31-27, and last week at Stanford 48-7. All five of those teams will likely go to a bowl game, and even Colorado St has a chance to go to one. Colorado now travels to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies. Colorado will not only attempt to win their first Pac 12 game, but also to snap a 20 game road losing streak. Washington is 4-1 this season, under coach Steve Sarkisian, and 2-0 in Pac 12 play. The only loss for the Huskies happened at Nebraska 51-38. Washington has home wins over Eastern Washington 30-27, Hawaii 40-32, California 31-23, and two weeks ago at Utah 31-14. This is the 12th meeting between Washington and Colorado, with the series tied 5-5-1. They haven’t played since 2000, a 17-14 Husky win in Boulder.
Colorado hung around with the then #7 Stanford Cardinal last week for awhile but in the end the high powered Cardinal simply had too much for the Buffaloes. Colorado scored early in the second to make the score 13-7, but Satnford outscored them 35-0 from that point on to win 48-7 and easily cover the 29 point college football betting line. Colorado managed only 264 total yards, including just 60 rushing yards, and 11 first downs. Colorado had 6 penalties and a turnover. The only good news for the Buffaloes was they forced two Stanford turnovers. Stanford had 553 yards including 392 passing yards in the rout.
Colorado is averaging 349.3 total yards a game including 254.8 passing yards a game. The Rushing attack is one one the worst in the country averaging 94.5 yards a game. They are averaging 21.5 points a game. Colorado has allowed 16 sacks and has 6 turnovers. The Buffaloes are 32/89 on third and fourth down conversions, and they are 13/16 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. On defense, Colorado is allowing 383.3 yards a game including 250.3 passing yards. The Buffaloes are giving up 33.3 points a game. Colorado has forced 6 turnovers and 18 sacks. Buffalo opponents are 41/85 on third and fourth down conversions, and 25/26 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. Colorado is averaging 9 penalties for 82 yards a game. Opponents have also blocked 4 Colorado kicks this season.
Colorado quarterback Tyler Hansen is 113/202 passing with 697 yards, 12 touchdowns and 3 interception along with 43 carries for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Rodney Stewart has 109 carries for 431 yards, with a touchdown. He is also the team’s second leading receiver with 26 catches for 417 yards. Receiver Paul Richardson has 30 catches for 488 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Richardson is out until at least late October with a knee injury. Toney Clemons has only 14 catches but 3 of them are for touchdowns. Four other Colorado receivers have a touchdown catch. Kicker Will Oliver has made all 15 of his extra points this season and is 8/11 on field goals with a long of 52 yards. Colorado has 9 players out for the season either due to suspension or injury including 7 defensive backs.
Two weeks ago, Washington was up 10-7 in Salt Lake City against Utah at halftime. The Huskies dominated the second half 21-7 to win 31-14. Utah was a 10 point favorite in the contest. Washington had 411 total yards in the upset including 185 rushing yards. Husky quarterback Keith Price had 226 passing yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Chris Polk rushed for 189 yards. Receiver Jermaine Kearse had 7 catches, 70 yards, and a touchdown. On defense, the Huskies held the Utes to 322 total yards including just 17 rushing yards. Washington forced 5 turnovers including a fumble returned 18 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter.
Washington is averaging 391.2 yards and 34 points a game. The Huskies are averaging 241.8 passing yards a game. Washington has 7 turnovers and allowed 11 sacks this season. The Huskies are 33/70 on third and fourth down conversions and 18/21 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. The Huskies are allowing 427 yards and 29.4 points. The Huskies are allowing 323 passing yards a game and 104 rushing yards. The Huskies have forced 12 turnovers and 8 sacks this season. Washington opponents are 41/81 on third and fourth down conversions this season, and 20/25 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns.
Price is 97/142 passing with 1,209 yards, 17 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions, along with 27 carries for 4 yards. Polk has 116 carries, 611 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 10 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. Backup running backs Johri Fogerson and Deonte Cooper are both out for the season, but Polk gets the vast majority of carries anyway. Wide receiver Devin Aguilar has 15 receptions for 293 yards, and 2 touchdowns. James Johnson has 17 catches, 226 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has 12 catches, 202 yards, and 3 catches. Kearse has 18 catches for 200 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Kasen Williams only has 10 catches but 2 of them are for touchdowns. Kicker Erik Folk (younger brother of the Jets’ kicker Nick) is perfect on extra points this season with 21 and with 7/8 on field goals and a long of 53 yards. The Husky secondary has been bitten by the injury bug with 3 players listed as questionable against Colorado.
Washington is 4-1 against the spread this season and the total is 2-2-1 in those games. Colorado is 2-4 ATS this year and the total is also 2-4 in those games. Colorado is 2-10 ATS in road games with 6 days for fewer rest over the last 3 seasons, and 0-8 ATS in the last 8 road games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall, 8-21 ATS in the last 29 road games versus teams with winning home records, 3-8 ATS in the last 11 against teams with winning records, 8-23 ATS in the last 31 road games, 7-24 ATS a road dog, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 as an underdog, 1-5 in their last 6 conference games, 0-5-1 in the last 6 October games, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 on turf. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 conference games, 6-0 following a straight up win and a cover, 4-0 in the last 4 overall, on turf, and following a bye week, 5-1 ATS in the last 6 versus teams with losing records, 15-34-3 in the last 52 as a favorite, including 7-18-2 as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, including 4-12-2 at home, 14-37-2 ATS in October, and 5-21-2 ATS at home versus teams with losing records.
Colorado’s secondary is so decimated, they are down to mostly walk-ons and true freshman. I can see Price picking them apart and having a huge game. Washington’s defense isn’t that great either, especially against the pass, but with Richardson out for Colorado and the anemic running game, I don’t know who Hansen is going target. I don’t see Colorado keeping this close.
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