#8 Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies
Husky Stadium – Seattle, Washington
Saturday, November 5, 2011, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports Net
Opening Line: Oregon -15
Current Line: Oregon -16 1/2
Opening Total: 73
Current Total: 75 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -670 / Washington +530
Current Money Line: Oregon -700 / Washington +550
Since a season opening loss to #1 LSU 40-27 in Arlington, Texas, Oregon has won 7 straight all by double digits. The Ducks have also scored at least 41 points in every game since LSU. Now, the Ducks head north to take on Pac 12 rival Washington who is 6-2 this season. Oregon is 5-0 in conference and Washington is 4-1 with the only loss coming at Stanford 2 weeks ago 65-21. Oregon is coached by Chip Kelly, and has home wins over Nevada 69-20, Missouri St 56-7, Cal 43-15, Arizona St 41-27, and last week against Washington St 43-28, along with road wins at Arizona 56-31, and Colorado 45-2. Washington is coached by Steve Sarkisian and has a loss at Nebraska 51-38 in addition to the Stanford loss. Washington has home wins over Eastern Washington 30-27, Hawaii 40-32, California 31-23, Colorado 52-24, and last week against Arizona 42-31, along with a road win at Utah 31-14. Washington leads the overall series against Oregon 58-40-5, including 33-23-4 in Seattle. Oregon has won 7 straight in the series including 53-16 last year in Eugene.
Oregon was a huge 37.5 point favorite on the college football betting line last week at home against Washington St. Oregon was up 15-10 at halftime and went on to win 43-28. Oregon had two special teams touchdowns, on a blocked punt and a kickoff return. Each team had 10 penalties and 2 turnovers, Washington St had a 76 yard interception return for a touchdown near the end of the first half. Oregon had 454 yards including 213 rushing yards. Oregon quarterback Darren Thomas returned from injury after missing the Colorado game. He threw for 153 yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions. Backup Bryan Bennett threw 2 touchdown passes. Running back Kenjon Barner had 11 carries, 107 yards and a touchdown. LaMichael James also returned from injury and had 11 carries for 53 yards. Lavasier Tuinei had 4 catches for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns. Washington St had 462 total yards and 125 rushing yards.
Oregon is averaging 526.9 total yards, including 309.2 rushing yards and is scoring 47.5 points a game. All three are in the top 5 nationally. Oregon averages 217.6 passing yards a game. The Ducks have allowed 5 sacks and have 9 turnovers this season. Oregon is 55/116 on third and fourth down conversions, and 33/37 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns. The Ducks are giving up 397 yards and 21.2 points a game. They have given up 157.6 rushing yards and 239.4 passing yards a game. The Ducks have forced 23 sacks and 9 turnovers. Oregon opponents are 56/154 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/30 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. Oregon has 6 defensive/special teams touchdowns and has 4 blocked kicks.
Thomas is 100/163 passing with 1,380 yards, 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season, along with 23 carries for 108 yards and 2 touchdown runs. Bennett is 24/45 passing for 361 yards and 6 touchdown passes, along with 21 carries for a90 yards. James has 108 carries for 905 yards, and 8 touchdowns along with 11 catches, 159 yards, and a touchdown catch. James has over 1,200 all-purpose yards and has a punt return for a touchdown. Kenjon Barner has 79 carries, 560 yards, and 7 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown. Running back De’Anthony Thomas has 40 carries, 340 yards, and 4 rushing touchdown to go along with 25 catches, 382 yards, and 6 scores. He also has over 1,200 all-purpose yards, and has a kickoff return for a touchdown. Tuinei has 24 catches, 335 yards, and 7 scores. Josh Huff has 13 catches, 177 yards, and a touchdown. Colt Lyerla has 3 catches, 53 yards, and 3 scores. Kicker Alejandro Maldonado is 44/45 on extra points and is 3/5 on field goals with a long of 37 yards. Rob Beard is 2/2 on field goals with a long of 30 yards and has also kicked 3 extra points this season. Oregon has 7 players listed as questionable, doubtful or out including 4 defensive players.
Washington was a 3.5 point favorite last week at home against Arizona. The Wildcats were up 10-0 at the end of the first quarter, but Washington fought back to take a 14-13 halftime lead. The game was tied at 28 at the end of the third, but Washington won 42-31. The game featured 7 total turnovers (4 by Arizona) and 14 penalties. Arizona had a 91 yard interception return for a touchdown in the third quarter. Washington had 489 total yards including 310 passing yards. Husky quarterback Keith Price threw for 277 yards, a touchdown, and 3 interceptions. Running back Chris Polk had 34 carries, 144 yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns, along with 4 catches, 100 yards, and a touchdown. Arizona had 424 total yards but only 36 rushing yards.
Washington is averaging 429.6 yards and 35.6 points a game. The Huskies are averaging 255.5 passing yards and 174.1 rushing yards a game. Washington has 14 turnovers and allowed 16 sacks this season. The Huskies are 55/109 on third and fourth down conversions and 30/33 scoring in the red zone with 27 touchdowns. The Huskies are allowing 430.4 yards and 33.4 points. The Huskies are allowing 297.4 passing yards a game and 133 rushing yards. The Huskies have forced 16 turnovers and 15 sacks this season. Washington opponents are 60/121 on third and fourth down conversions this season, and 33/38 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Washington has one defensive touchdown this season.
Price is 157/236 passing with 1,990 yards, 23 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions, along with 35 carries for 15 yards. Polk has 183 carries, 1,016 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 18 catches for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns. Backup running backs Johri Fogerson and Deonte Cooper are both out for the season, but Polk gets the vast majority of carries anyway. Jesse Callier and Bishop Sankey both get significant carries. Wide receiver Devin Aguilar has 28 receptions for 427 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Jermaine Kearse has 31 catches for 395 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has 21 catches, 335 yards, and 4 touchdowns. James Johnson has 26 catches,330 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kasen Williams only has 14 catches but 2 of them are for touchdowns. Kicker Erik Folk (younger brother of the Jets’ kicker Nick) is perfect on extra points this season with 36 and with 8/10 on field goals and a long of 53 yards. The Husky secondary has been bitten by the injury bug with 3 players listed as questionable or out against Oregon.
Washington is 6-2 against the spread this season and the total is 5-2-1 in those games. Oregon is 4-3-1 ATS and the total is 5-3 in those games. The last two games have gone over the total in this series. The Ducks are 5-1 ATS after failing to cover, 4-1-1 in conference, 3-1-1 after scoring 40 points or more, as a favorite, after a straight up win, overall, and as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, 11-5 as a road favorite of 10.5 points or more, 1-3-1 against a team with a winning record, and 0-3-1 in November. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 3-0-1 in November, 9-1-1 on turf, 7-1-1 in conference, 7-1 after a win and a cover, 6-1 overall, 5-1-1 against teams with winning records, 4-1-1 at home, and 5-2-1 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more.
Oregon is clearly the better team here, though Washington is improving. I see a similar game to when Washington traveled to Stanford 2 weeks ago. Washington is terrible on defense, and Oregon could almost reach the 75 1/2 point total all by themselves. Even though Oregon has a huge showdown at Stanford looming next week, I don’t see them looking ahead as Oregon and Washington are such big rivals.
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