#19 Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes
Thursday, March 7, 2013, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Coors Events Center – Boulder, Colorado
Opening Line: Colorado -3 1/2
Current Line: Colorado -3
Opening Total: 129
Current Total: 129
Opening Money Line: Colorado -155 / Oregon +135
Current Money Line: Colorado -140 / Oregon +120
Parity has ruled the Pac 12 this season with the top 9 teams capable of beating any of the others on a given day. Even bottom feeders Washington St, Utah, and Oregon St who have three conference wins each have pulled off an upset or two. Still, the Oregon Ducks are 12-4 and have a clear path to the regular season title thanks to recent losses by Arizona, UCLA, and Cal, the other conference leaders.
But it won’t be easy as Oregon has to go on the road to Colorado Thursday night and Utah Saturday to complete the regular season. The 23-6 Ducks will clinch the title with a weekend sweep in the mountains. The Ducks lead 12-5 UCLA by a half game, and 12-6 Cal by a full game. Arizona is a game and a half back at 11-6. Both UCLA and Cal lost last night. Cal and Arizona can only win a share of the Pac 12 title if Oregon loses to both Colorado and Utah, and UCLA loses at Washington Saturday. UCLA needs to win Saturday and get at least one loss from Oregon. Cal is finished for the regular season, and Arizona plays Arizona St Saturday in Tucson.
Colorado is 19-9 this season, and 9-7 in conference. The Buffaloes are in fifth place in the conference, a half game ahead of USC, Arizona St, and Washington. The Buffaloes are a bubble team for the NCAA tournament.
Colorado leads the series 6-3 against Oregon, including 3-0 in Boulder. Colorado has won 3 of the last 4 against Oregon all by one point. Colorado snapped a 20 game home winning streak for Oregon 48-47 February 7. In that game Oregon took a 5 point lead at halftime and didn’t trail until Colorado took a 47-46 with 2:12 remaining. Oregon forward E.J. Singler missed a long jumper with 1.1 seconds left that would have given Oregon the win.
Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have losses Cincinnati in a tournament in Las Vegas and at UTEP in triple overtime, Stanford, Cal twice, and a home loss to Colorado. Oregon has key wins over Vanderbilt, at UNLV, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon St twice including 85-75 last Thursday, Arizona, and Arizona St at UCLA and USC, and at home against Washington St twice, Washington twice, Utah and Stanford. The Ducks have won 5 of their last 6 games after a 3 game losing streak. Oregon is 11-15-1 ATS and the total is 8-13 this season.
Oregon is outscoring teams 73-63 this season. The Ducks are shooting 45.1% from the field and 31.3% from 3 point range. Oregon makes 71.9% of their free throws. The Ducks are #41 in rebounding with 37.9 per game. Oregon is 40th in rebounds allowed, with 27.7 per game. Duck opponents are shooting 40.6% from the field and 33% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 13 assists, 9 steals, 4 blocks and 13 turnovers.
Singler averages 11.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1 steal a game. Oregon guard Damyean Dotson averages 11 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1 assist. He is probable with a hip injury. Forward Carlos Emory averages 11.2 points and 4.4 rebounds. Guard Dominic Artis averages 10 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Artis missed 9 games with a foot injury. Center Tony Woods averages 9.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. Forward Arsalan Kazemi averages 9.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Waverly Austin, Ben Carter and and Johnathan Loyd make up the rest of the rotation. Loyd is questionable with an illness.
Colorado is coached by Tad Boyle. Colorado has losses at Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Arizona St, and Washington, Cal twice, including 62-46 in Berkeley Saturday, Utah, Arizona St and UCLA. The Buffaloes have key wins over Dayton, Baylor and Murray St in a tournament in Charleston, at home against Air Force, Colorado St, USC, and Stanford twice, Arizona and Utah, along with road wins at Fresno St and Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St. The Buffaloes had won 2 straight games before the Cal loss. Colorado is 15-11 ATS and the total is 5-14 this season.
Colorado is outscoring teams 68-64 this season. The Buffaloes are shooting 44% from the field and 34.2% from 3 point range. The Buffaloes make 67.3% of their free throws. Colorado averages 37.3 rebounds per game and give up 30.8 to opponents. Buffaloes’ opponents are shooting 40.2% from the field and 32.5% from 3 point range. Colorado is averaging 10 assists, 7 steals, 3 blocks, and 13 turnovers per game.
Colorado guard Spencer Dinwiddie averages 15.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Guard Askia Booker averages 12.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Josh Scott averages 11.2 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. Andre Roberson averages 10.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. he is probable with the flu. Xavier Johnson averages 8.3 points and 4.8 rebounds. Sabatino Chen averages 4.5 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists. Jeremy Adams, Xavier Talton, Shane Harris-Tunks and Eli Stalzer make up the rest of the rotation, but none play more than 10 minutes a game.
Oregon is 4-1 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive home games, 12-5 in road games, 2-6 against teams with winning records, 2-8-1 overall, and against Pac 12 teams, 1-5-1 after a straight up win, and 0-3-1 in Thursday games.
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in home games against teams with winning road records, and after scoring less than 50 points, 7-2 against teams with winning records, 19-7 in Thursday games, and 20-9 after failing to cover.
This has been a crazy season so far in the Pac 12, much like in all of college basketball. Both Oregon and Colorado need this game for different reasons. Boulder is a tough place to play because of the altitude. Conventional wisdom says take the Buffs at home, but that hasn’t really worked this season. I like Oregon to pull off the mild upset on the road.
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