Washington Huskies at Southern California Trojans
Los Angeles Coliseum – Los Angeles, California
Saturday, November 12, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Opening Line: USC -13
Current Line: USC -11 1/2
Opening Total: 62 1/2
Current Total: 63 1/2
Opening Money Line: USC -450 / Washington +370
Current Money Line: USC -430 / Washington +350
The Washington Huskies have upset USC two years in a row with last second wins, last year 32-31 in Los Angeles and 16-13 in Seattle the year before. USC looks for revenge in a battle of teams that are 4-2 in the Pac 12. Washington is 6-3 under coach Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian made headlines this week when he said he would take USC quarterback Matt Barkley over Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck if he were an NFL scout. Sarkisian is a former USC assistant and recruited Barkley before he took over the Washington program.
All three of the Huskies’ losses have come against ranked teams. Washington lost at Nebraska 51-38, and Stanford 65-21, and last week at home to Oregon 34-17. The Huskies have home wins over Eastern Washington 30-27, Hawaii 40-32, California 31-23, Colorado 52-24, and Arizona 42-31, along with a road win at Utah 31-14. USC is coached by Lane Kiffin and is 7-2. The Trojans have losses at Arizona St 43-22, and at home to Stanford 56-48 in triple overtime. USC has home wins over Minnesota 19-17, Utah, 23-14, Syracuse 38-17, and Arizona 48-21, along with road wins over Cal 30-9, Notre Dame 31-17, and last week at Colorado 42-17. USC leads the series 49-28-4 including 29-11 in the Coliseum.
Last week, Washington hosted rival Oregon. Oregon was up 17-10 at halftime and outscored the Huskies 17-7 in the second half to win 34-17 and cover the 16.5 point spread on the college football betting line. Neither team scored in the fourth quarter. Washington had 3 turnovers in the loss. The Huskies had only 278 total yards including just 82 rushing yards. Washington quarterback Keith Price threw for 143 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, but was sacked 6 times. Running back Chris Polk had 12 carries for 80 yards, and 6 catches for 31 yards. Receiver Kasen Williams had 6 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. Oregon had 381 total yards including 212 rushing yards.
Washington is averaging 412.8 yards and 33.6 points a game. The Huskies are averaging 248.9 passing yards and 163.9 rushing yards a game. Washington has 17 turnovers and allowed 22 sacks this season. The Huskies are 63/127 on third and fourth down conversions and 33/36 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns. The Huskies are allowing 424.9 yards and 33.4 points. The Huskies are allowing 283.1 passing yards a game and 141.8 rushing yards. The Huskies have forced 17 turnovers and 15 sacks this season. Washington opponents are 65/133 on third and fourth down conversions this season, and 38/43 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns. Washington has one defensive touchdown this season.
Price is 181/271 passing with 2,133 yards, 25 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Polk has 207 carries, 1,096 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 24 catches for 280 yards and 3 touchdowns. Backup running backs Johri Fogerson and Deonte Cooper are both out for the season, but Polk gets the vast majority of carries anyway. Jesse Callier and Bishop Sankey both get significant carries. Wide receiver Devin Aguilar has 30 receptions for 461 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Jermaine Kearse has 34 catches for 419 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Kearse is probable with an ankle injury. James Johnson has 26 catches,330 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Johnson missed the Oregon game with an ankle injury and is questionable for this game. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has 22 catches, 329 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Williams has 20 catches, 236 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Erik Folk (younger brother of the Jets’ kicker Nick) is perfect on extra points this season with 38 and with 9/11 on field goals with a long of 53 yards. The Husky secondary has been bitten by the injury bug with 3 players listed as questionable or out against USC.
USC was a 20 point favorite on the road at Colorado last Friday night. Colorado actually scored first but USC reeled off 28 unanswered points to take control of the game. USC ended up winning 42-17. The Trojans had 561 total yards including 243 rushing yards. USC quarterback Matt Barkley threw for 318 yards with 6 touchdowns and an interception. Receiver Robert Woods had 9 catches, 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. Marquise Lee had 9 catches, 124 yards, and 2 touchdown catches. Running back Amir Carlisle had 10 carries for 90 yards, plus 2 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown reception. Curtis McNeal had 10 carries for 87 yards. Colorado had 384 total yards including 134 rushing yards.
USC is averaging 446.8 yards and 33.4 points a game this season. The Trojans are averaging 290 passing yards and 156.8 rushing yards a game. USC has 15 turnovers and have allowed 5 sacks this season. USC is 59/126 on third and fourth down conversions, and 29/38 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. USC is allowing 377.1 yards, including 106.4 rushing yards and 270.7 passing yards. The Trojans are allowing 25.7 points a game. USC has 16 sacks and has forced 14 turnovers. USC opponents are 58/137 on third and fourth down conversions, and 30/35 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns. The Trojans have 3 defensive touchdowns.
Barkley is 229/342 passing for 2,608 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, along with 20 carries for 25 yards and a touchdown. McNeal has 95 carries, 639 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. Marc Tyler has 97 carries for 438 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 86 yards. Tyler missed the Colorado game with a shoulder injury and is probable against Washington. D.J. Morgan also gets significant carries for the Trojans. Woods has 90 catches, 1,121 yards, and 11 touchdowns for the Trojans. Woods has just under 1,600 all purpose yards. Lee has 43 catches, 658 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Randall Telfer has 16 catches and 3 touchdowns. Xavier Grimble has 14 catches, and has 4 touchdown catches. Kicker Andre Heidari is 34/34 on extra points and 13/15 on field goals with a long of 50 yards. The Trojans have serious injury problems with 8 players out indefinitely or for the season and 17 players listed total.
USC is 5-4 against the spread and the total is also 5-4 this season. Washington is 6-3 ATS and the total 5-3-1 this season. The Huskies have won and covered 2 straight against the Trojans. Washington is 3-0-1 ATS following a straight up loss, 5-1-1 on the road, including 4-1-1 against teams with winning home records, and as a road underdog, 7-2-1 in conference, 10-3-1 overall, 3-1-1 in November, 5-2-1 against teams with winning records, 6-13-1 after scoring 20 points or less the previous game, and 2-7-1 after a double digit loss at home. USC is 4-1 ATS as a favorite, 24-10 in November, 6-15 after allowing 20 points or less, 3-8 after scoring 40 points or more, 2-6 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more, 4-13 after a cover, and 1-5 after a straight up of 20 points or more.
USC’s defense struggles to stop the pass, and Washington can move the ball through the air. The Trojans are so banged up on both sides of the ball, and they didn’t have a ton of depth anyway because of NCAA sanctions that limit the number of scholarships the Trojans can offer. The biggest question about Washington is who have they beaten? The best wins are against mediocre Cal and Utah teams who are just trying to get 6 wins and squeeze into a bowl game. Washington has been outscored 150-79 in the three games against high quality Stanford, Nebraska, and Oregon. That would seem to indicate that Washington isn’t quite ready for the big leagues. USC might not be as talented as those three teams but they are still a very good team.
Our college football handicappers are red hot this season and crushing the sports books. Check out our college football odds page for real time line updates.
