Utah Utes at California Golden Bears
AT&T Park – San Francisco, California
Saturday, October 22, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Comcast Bay
Opening Line: California -3
Current Line: California -1 1/2
Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Cal -130 / Utah +110
Current Money Line: Cal -125 / Utah +105
Both Utah and California are 3-3 this season but both teams are 0-3 in the Pac 12. They both are desperate for a win, though hopes of winning a division title for the teams are probably gone. Now, Utah travels to San Francisco to take on the Golden Bears in an official home game for Cal as their stadium in Berkeley is being renovated. Utah, coached by Kyle Whittingham, has wins at home against Montana St 27-10, and at BYU 54-10 and last week at Pittsburgh 26-14. The Utes have losses at USC 23-14, and at home to Washington 31-14 and Arizona St 35-14. California is coached by Jeff Tedford, and started off the season 3-0 with “home” wins over Fresno St 36-21 and Presbyterian 63-12, along with a road win at Colorado 36-33 in overtime. Cal has lost 3 straight since then, including at Washington 31-23, at Oregon 43-15, and last week against USC in San Francisco 30-9. Cal leads the series against Utah 4-3 but Utah has won 2 straight and 3 of the last 4 including a 37-27 win in the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego.
Last week, Utah had to travel across country to play in a 12:00 pm Eastern game at Pittsburgh. The Panthers were six point favorites on the college football betting line, and jumped out to a a 14-3 lead at the end of the 1st quarter on the strength of two special teams touchdowns, a 98 yard kickoff return and a blocked punt. However, Pitt didn’t score for the rest of the game and the Utes won 26-14. Neither team could move the ball very well, but Pitt was especially pathetic on offense with 120 total yards, 12 first downs, 8 penalties, and 3 turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown by Utah in the fourth quarter that sealed the victory. Utah wasn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut either with 251 total yards, 19 first downs, and 10 penalties. Utah quarterback Jon Hays started the game for the injured Jordan Wynn who is out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery this week. Hays was 14/23 passing for 127 yards and a touchdown pass, with not interceptions. Hays threw a 33 yard touchdown pass to Luke Matthews just before halftime for the game’s only offensive touchdown. Hays was sacked 7 times. Running back John White IV had 36 carries for 171 yards with no touchdowns.
Utah is averaging 330.8 total yards a game including 129.3 rushing yards and 201.5 passing yards. The Utes are scoring 24.8 points a game. Utah has 13 turnovers and has allowed 16 sacks. Utah is 33/93 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/21 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. The Utes are giving up 326.3 yards a game including 94.5 rushing yards and 231.8 passing yards. Utah is allowing 20.5 points a game. The Utes have forced 16 turnovers and 15 sacks this season. Utah opponents are 39/105 on third and fourth down conversions, and 11/15 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. Utah has 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns, but has allowed 4 this season.
Hays is 42/70 passing for 482 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. White IV has 128 carries, 671 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 7 catches, 26 yards, and a touchdown. He has more than double the carries of the rest of the team combined. Receiver DeVonte Christopher has 23 catches, 351 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with an ankle injury after missing last week’s game. Dres Anderson has 18 catches, 256 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Dallin Rogers has 22 catches, 160 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Jake Murphy has only 3 catches but one of them went for a touchdown. Matthews only has 10 catches, but could get more targets if Christopher can’t go. Kicker Coleman Petersen is 17/18 on extra points and 8/10 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. Utah has 6 players including Wynn that are out indefinitely or for the season, and 5 players that are listed as questionable this week.
Last week, USC and Cal met in San Francisco in the Thursday night ESPN game. The Trojans were 3 point favorites and were up 23-0 in the third before Cal finally got on the board with a field goal. USC ended up winning 30-9. Cal had 5 turnovers in the game, and USC had 2. The Bears had 329 total yards including 294 passing yards, and 18 first downs. Cal had 35 rushing yards. Cal quarterback Zach Maynard threw for 294 yards and 3 interceptions but he did have a rushing touchdown. It was the only touchdown for the Bears but the extra point was blocked. Wide receiver Keenan Allen had 13 catches for 160 yards. Marvin Jones had 6 catches for 89 yards. The Trojans had 313 total yards including 118 rushing yards and 18 first downs.
The Golden Bears are averaging 436.7 total yards and 30.3 points a game. Cal is averaging 299.3 passing yards and 137.3 rushing yards a game. Cal has 9 turnovers and has allowed 11 sacks. The Bears are 43/118 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/26 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. Cal is holding opponents to 355.5 total yards including 132.7 rushing yards and 222.8 passing yards a game. Bear opponents are scoring 28.4 points. The Bears have forced 14 sacks and 9 turnovers. Cal opponents are 34/94 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/19 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns. Cal is averaging 8 penalties a game but their opponents are averaging 9 a game. The Bears have 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns.
Maynard is 117/222 passing with 1,585 yards, 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He also has 33 carries for 29 yards and a rushing touchdown. Running back Isi Sofele has 103 carries for 543 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 33 yards. C.J. Anderson has 29 carries, 131 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Allen has 52 catches for 828 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Jones has 35 catches, 540 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Anthony Miller has only 10 catches but two of them went for touchdowns. Kicker Giorgio Tavecchio is 17/21 on extra points and 9/10 on field goals with a long of 54 yards. Tight end Spencer Ladner is questionable against Utah with a knee injury and receiver Kaelin Clay and fullback Eric Stevens are both out for the season.
Cal is 2-4 against the spread this season and the total is 3-3 in those games. Utah is also 2-4 ATS and the total is 2-4 in those games. The Utes are 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or less, 5-1 as a road dog of 3 points or less, 29-10-1 as a road underdog, 35-15-1 as an underdog, 7-3 on grass, 35-17-1 following a cover, 3-9 overall, 1-5 in conference games, and 0-6 following a straight up win. Cal is 5-1-1 ATS following a double digit loss at home, 4-1 as a home favorite of 3 points or less, 20-8 as a home favorite, 7-3 at home, 4-15 as a favorite of 3 points or less, 1-4 in October, and overall, 0-5 following a straight up loss, and 0-6 in conference games.
Cal has a pretty good offense, but it hasn’t showed the last 2 weeks against Oregon and USC, as the Bears have 24 total points in the two games. This week they play another strong defensive team in Utah. Utah struggles on offense though, and California is decent on defense. I see this game as a coin flip, but I do like the total to go under 46 points.
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