Arizona Wildcats at #2 Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium – Eugene, Oregon
Thursday, October 2, 2014, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Oregon -25 1/2
Current Line: Oregon -24
Opening Total: 70
Current Total: 79 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -2158 / Arizona +1492
Current Money Line: Oregon -1700 / Arizona +1075
Both the Arizona Wildcats and Oregon Ducks are 4-0 this season as they meet Thursday in Eugene, Oregon. Both teams are 1-0 in Pac 12 play with narrow wins over teams they were heavy favorites to beat. Both teams were off last week.
Oregon leads the series 24-15 against Arizona including 13-4 in Eugene. The Ducks have won 16 of the last 20 games in the series. Arizona won 42-16 against Oregon last year in Tucson to snap a five game losing streak against the Ducks. The Wildcats haven’t won in Eugene since 2006.
Arizona is coached by Rich Rodriguez. The Wildcats have home wins over UNLV 58-13, Nevada 35-28 and two weeks ago against California 49-45. Arizona trailed by 18 points in the fourth quarter against Cal and came back to win on a last second Hail Mary touchdown pass. The Wildcats also have a road win at Texas-San Antonio 26-23. Arizona is 1-3 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season. Arizona was an 8 point favorite against California and the total was 70.
Oregon is coached by Mark Helfrich. The Ducks have home wins over South Dakota 62-13, Michigan State 46-27 and Wyoming 48-14. Two weeks ago, Oregon opened Pac 12 play with a 38-31 win at Washington State. The Ducks were 23 point favorites against Washington State and the total was 79. Oregon is 1-3 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season.
Arizona is outscoring teams 42-27 this season. The Wildcats are #17 nationally in scoring. Arizona is #5 in total offense averaging 594 yards per game including the 8th best passing attack at 366 yards per game . The rushing game is #29 out of 128 teams at 228 yards per game. On defense, the Wildcats are allowing 431 yards per game including 295 passing and 135 rushing yards per game. Arizona is #116 nationally in pass defense. The Wildcats are +1 in turnovers with 4 takeaways. Arizona is 34/76 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 23/62. Arizona averages 62 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 73. The Wildcats have forced 9 sacks and allowed 7. Arizona is 16/18 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns, and opponents are 11/12 with 8 touchdowns.
Arizona freshman quarterback Anu Solomon has been very good through four games. He has completed 63.4% of his passes for 1,454 yards with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he also has 39 carries for 167 yards. Running back Nick Wilson has 77 carries for 482 yards with 4 touchdowns, plus 7 catches. Terris Jones-Grigsby has 18 carries for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 3 catches. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Receiver Cayleb Jones has 29 catches for 475 yards and 6 touchdowns. Austin Hill has 15 catches for 163 yards and 3 touchdowns. Samajie Grant, Nate Phillips, Trey Griffey and Davonte’ Neal will also get a lot of targets. Grant is questionable with a concussion and Neal is questionable with an ankle injury.
Oregon is outscoring teams 49-21 this season. Oregon is #4 nationally in scoring and #43 in points allowed. The Ducks average 555 yards per game including 330 rushing and 225 passing yards. Oregon is #10 in total offense and #16 in passing. Even the rushing attack is #33 in the country. Oregon is allowing 444 yards per game on defense, including 315 passing and 128 rushing yards. Oregon is #122 in pass defense and #98 in total defense out of 128 teams. The Ducks are +7 in turnovers for the season with 8 takeaways. Oregon is 30/52 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 32/75. The Ducks have forced 12 sacks and allowed 10. Oregon is 18/21 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns, and opponents are 13/17 with 10 touchdowns. The Ducks are averaging 69 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 43. Oregon has a punt return for touchdown.
Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is putting up Heisman like numbers this season. Mariota has completed 74% of his passes for 1,135 yards with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions, and has rushed for 214 yards on 33 carries with 3 touchdowns. Running back Royce Freeman has 48 carries for 261 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. Byron Marshall has 21 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown, and 18 catches for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns. Thomas Tyner has 40 carries fro 175 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches. Receiver Devon Allen has 14 catches for 299 yards and 5 touchdowns. Keanon Lowe has 13 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Pharaoh Brown has 9 catches for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Bralon Addison is out for the season with a knee injury. Two offensive linemen are also out indefinitely.
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in October, 18-41 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 3-7 after failing to cover and overall, 2-5 in road games, 3-8 after allowing more than 450 total yards, 2-6 on fieldturf, 1-4 after scoring more than 40 points, in Thursday games and against teams with winning records, 1-5 in Pac 12 games, and 0-6 after a straight up win.
Oregon is 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 4-1 in Thursday games, 12-4 after a bye week, 5-2 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 14-6 after a straight up win, 13-6 against teams with winning records, 34-16-1 in October, 2-7 overall, 1-4 at home and against teams with winning road records, 1-5 on fieldturf, 1-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards, and 0-5 in Pac 12 games. The home team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.
Both Oregon and Arizona have been prolific in the passing attack but neither has been able to stop teams from passing against them. This should be a very high scoring game but 79 is a lot of points. Oregon is a 24 point favorite and they are certainly capable of rolling the Wildcats. Still, I think Arizona stays within the big number.
