Oregon State Beavers at Stanford Cardinal
Stanford Stadium – Stanford, California
Saturday, October 25, 2014, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Stanford -14
Current Line: Stanford -13
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 43
Opening Money Line: Stanford -500 / Oregon State +400
Current Money Line: Stanford -485 / Oregon State +385
The 4-3 Stanford Cardinal who are 2-2 in the Pac 12 North Division host the 4-2 Oregon State Beavers Saturday who are 1-2 in the division. Both teams trail the 4-1 Oregon Ducks in the standings.
Stanford leads the series 52-25-3 against Oregon State. The Cardinal have won four straight games overall in the series and three straight at home. The Cardinal won last year in Corvallis 20-12.This series dates back to 1919.
Oregon State is coached by Mike Riley. The Beavers have a loss at USC 35-10 and last week at home to Utah 29-23 in double overtime. Oregon State has home wins over Portland State 29-14 and San Diego State 28-7, along with road wins over Hawaii 38-30 and Colorado 36-31. The Beavers are 2-4 ATS and the total is also 2-3-1 this season. Oregon State was a 1.5 point underdog against Utah and the total was 52.
Stanford is coached by David Shaw. With 3 losses already it seems unlikely Stanford will go to a fifth straight BCS level Bowl Game unless they somehow pass Oregon and play in and win the Pac 12 Championship game. Stanford has a home loss against USC 13-10, plus road losses at Notre Dame 17-14 and last week at Arizona State 26-10. The Cardinal have home wins over UC-Davis 45-0, Army 35-0, and Washington State 34-17, along with a road win at Washington 20-13. Stanford is 3-4 ATS and every game has gone under the total so far. The Cardinal were 3.5 point favorites against Arizona State and the total was 54.
Oregon State is outscoring teams 27-24 this season. The Beavers are averaging 393 yards per game on offense including 263 passing and 130 rushing yards. OSU is #44 in passing but #105 in rushing out of 128 FBS teams. On defense, the Beavers are allowing 329 yards per game including 176 passing and 153 rushing yards. Oregon State is #22 or better in total and passing defense. The Beavers are +3 in turnovers with 12 takeaways. Oregon State is averaging 83 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 77. The Beavers are 28/84 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 34/98. OSU has forced 15 sacks and allowed 17 this season. The Beavers are 24/28 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns and opponents are 16/18 with 14 touchdowns. Oregon State has a kick return for a touchdown and has allowed a pick six this season.
Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion has completed 63.5% of his passes for 1,576 yards with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Running back Terron Ward has 82 carries for 412 yards and 6 touchdowns along with 17 catches for 145 yards. Storm Woods has 68 carries for 388 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. Both Ward (wrist) and Woods (knee) are probable with injuries. Receiver Victor Bolden has 28 catches for 305 yards and a touchdown, plus 11 carries for 99 yards. Connor Hamlett has 20 catches for 234 yards and a touchdown. Richard Mullaney has 18 catches for 216 yards and a touchdown. He is out fro the season with an elbow injury. Caleb Smith and Hunter Jarmon will also get catches, along with the running backs.
Stanford is outscoring teams 24-12 this season. The Cardinal are #2 in points allowed nationally and #100 in scoring. The Cardinal are averaging 375 yards per game on offense including 235 passing and 140 rushing yards. Stanford is #93 in total offense and #95 in rushing. On defense, Stanford is allowing 255 total yards per game, including 153 passing yards and 102 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #3 in pass defense and #2 in total defense nationally. Even the rush defense is #12 nationally. Stanford is -9 in turnovers with 5 takeaways. Stanford is 35/95 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 46/132. Stanford averages 58 penalty yards per game and opponents average 47. The Cardinal have forced 21 sacks and allowed 15 this season. Stanford is 20/30 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns and opponents are 13/16 with 7 touchdowns. The Cardinal have a punt return for a touchdown, and have allowed a defensive touchdown.
Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan has completed 62.4% of his passes for 1,537 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, plus 3 rushing touchdowns and 84 yards on 49 carries. Running back Remound Wright has 60 carries for 318 yards and 2 touchdowns. Barry Sanders, Jr. has 35 carries for 247 yards. Kelsey Young has 34 carries for 170 yards. Receiver Ty Montgomery has 41 catches for 443 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also has a rushing touchdown and a punt return for a touchdown. Austin Hooper has 19 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown. Devon Cajuste has 18 catches for 243 yards but 3 of them went for touchdowns. He is questionable with a head injury. Five defensive players are also questionable or out.
Oregon State is 6-1 ATS after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 4-1 after a straight up loss and after failing to cover, and against teams with winning home records, 43-17-1 in October, and 5-2 in road games. The under is 10-3 ATS in this series recently.
Stanford is 5-0 ATS after a straight up win, and after scoring less than 20 points, 5-1 after failing to cover, 6-2 at home, 5-2 against teams with winning road records, 25-12-1 in Pac 12 games, and 1-5 against teams with winning records. The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games against the Beavers and Stanford was the favorite in each of those contests. The home team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.
Both Stanford and Oregon State are elite defensive teams but struggle on offense. Stanford is a 13 point favorite but there is no guarantee they even score that many points. I think the Beavers keep it close and have a shot at the road upset.
