#23 Arizona State Sun Devils at #5 Stanford Cardinal
Stanford Stadium – Stanford, California
Saturday, September 21, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Stanford -6 1/2
Current Line: Stanford -5 1/2
Opening Total: 52
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: Stanford -280 / Arizona State +230
Current Money Line: Stanford -210 / Arizona State +180

Both the 2-0 Stanford Cardinal and 2-0 Arizona State Sun Devils are ranked in the top 25 as they open Pac 12 play in Stanford. Arizona State leads the series 16-11, but Stanford is 7-6 at home against the Sun Devils. The Cardinal have won the last 2 games in the series including 17-13 in Tempe in 2010. The teams are in different divisions in the Pac 12 and haven’t played since the conference expanded to 12 teams with the addition of Utah and Colorado.

The #23 Arizona State Sun Devils are coached by Todd Graham. The Sun Devils beat Sacramento State 55-0 to open the season, and then beat Wisconsin 32-30 last week in a wild, controversial finish. ASU is 1-1 ATS and both games have gone over the total. The Sun Devils were 7 point favorites against Wisconsin and the total was 55.

The Sun Devils kicked a field goal in the first quarter to take a 3-0 lead. The Badgers responded with two touchdowns within a minute to begin the second quarter. ASU would score 10 points before halftime to make it 14-13 Badgers at halftime. Wisconsin scored on an 80 yard touchdown run from Melvin Gordon just seconds into the third quarter to go up 21-13. ASU running back Marion Grice scored the second of four rushing touchdowns late in the third to make it 21-19 but the Sun Devils missed the extra point. Wisconsin kicked a field goal early in the fourth to go up 24-19. Grice ran for two more touchdowns to put the Sun Devils up 32-24, but ASU missed another extra point. Wisconsin scored with 3:53 left on a one yard touchdown run from Gordon. The Badgers failed on the two point conversion try.

The last four minutes of the game included a wild finish. After scoring, Wisconsin kicked off deep and ASU drove to midfield before having to punt. The Badgers took over at their 17 with no timeouts and just 1:36 left. Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave drove the Badgers down to the ASU 13. He ran up the middle to set up the potential game winning field goal with 18 seconds left. However, he ran into one of his linemen, and awkwardly put the ball on the ground. ASU defenders quickly jumped on the ball, but the referees said it was a dead ball. The clock was still running and by the time the refs sorted out the pile, there was less than 3 seconds left. Big Ten rules say you can’t spike the ball with under 3 seconds left, so time ran out.

Wisconsin had 441 total yards including 231 rushing yards and 15 first downs. Arizona St had 468 total yards with 352 passing, and 32 first downs. ASU had 2 turnovers and Wisconsin had one.

Arizona State is outscoring teams 43.5-15. The Sun Devils are averaging 495.5 yards per game, including 358.5 passing yards. ASU is #8 in passing nationally and #20 in scoring. On defense, the Sun Devils are allowing 304 yards per game, including 163 passing yards. Arizona State is 21st or better in total defense, pass defense, and points allowed. The Sun Devils are +3 in turnovers with 5 takeaways. ASU is 17/38 on third and fourth down conversions. The Sun Devils are 10/13 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns.

ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly has completed 63.4% of his passes for 652 yards with 5 touchdowns, and an interception, and Kelly also has 17 carries for 49 yards. Running back Marion Grice has 36 carries, 143 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 9 catches, 115 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Jaelen Strong has 12 catches, 162 yards and a touchdown. Running back D.J. Foster has 11 catches for 98 yards along with 32 rushing yards.

The #5 Stanford Cardinal are coached by David Shaw. The Cardinal beat San Jose St 34-13 at home, and then traveled to Army last week and won 34-20. Stanford is 0-2 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season. Stanford did not come close to covering the 30.5 point spread at Army and the total was 50 points.

Army kicked two first quarter field goals to go up 6-0. The Cardinal finally woke up and scored 17 straight to go up 17-6. The Black Knights pulled to within 17-13 with just over a minute to go before halftime. However, Stanford kicked a field goal as time expired in the second to take a 20-13 lead into the locker room. Stanford added two touchdowns in the second half to go up 34-13. Army added a touchdown with 17 seconds left that put the game over the total and made the final 34-20.

Stanford had 402 total yards including 197 rushing yards. Army had 333 total yards, including 284 rushing yards. Stanford had 2 turnovers, and Army had 1. It was a lackluster performance by the Cardinal, but chalk it up to having to travel cross country for a game that started at 9:00 am Pacific time. It is also possible Stanford overlooked an Army team that isn’t very good.

Stanford is outscoring teams 34-16.5 this season. The Cardinal are averaging 406 yards per game on offense including 200 rushing yards. On defense, Stanford is allowing 292 total yards per game, including 132.5 passing yards. The Cardinal are #15 in total defense, and #7 against the pass nationally. Stanford is -1 in turnovers with 3 giveaways. Stanford is 18/27 on third and fourth down conversions. The Cardinal have forced 4 sacks. Stanford is 6/6 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.

Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has completed 62.2% of his passes for 395 yards with 5 touchdowns and a pick, along with 7 carries for 32 yards. Running back Tyler Gaffney has 40 carries, 236 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 3 catches, 43 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Ty Montgomery has 10 catches, 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. No other Cardinal receiver has more than 5 catches.

Arizona State is 4-1 ATS overall and on grass, 5-2 in September, 16-33-3 against teams with winning home records, 2-5 against teams with winning records, and 2-7 after failing to cover. The under is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series. The Sun Devils are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 against the Cardinal.

Stanford is 4-1 ATS in Pac 12 games, 12-3 after allowing 170 passing yards or less, 20-7-1 on grass, 8-3 in September, 18-7-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 5-2 after failing to cover, and against teams with winning records, 34-16-1 after a straight up win, and 35-17-1 overall. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the series recently. The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS against the Sun Devils in the last six at Stanford.

Stanford hasn’t been as dominant as a top five team should be against inferior teams. Arizona St beat Wisconsin by 2 points at home. That is why you can get good value with Stanford at -5 1/2. I think the Cardinal easily cover that number.

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