Southern California Trojans at California Golden Bears
AT&T Park – San Francisco, California
Thursday, October 13, 2011, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: USC -4
Current Line: USC -3 (-115)
Opening Total: 56
Current Total: 55 1/2
Opening Money Line: USC -160 / Cal +140
Current Money Line: USC -150 / Cal +130
The USC Trojans and California Golden Bears meet for the 99th time Thursday in San Francisco. The game is an official home game for the Bears but their home stadium in Berkeley is being renovated and the Bears will play all home games at AT&T Park in San Francisco. USC leads the series 63-30-5 and has won 7 straight in the series including 48-14 last season in Los Angeles. The Trojans, coached by Lane Kiffin, are 4-1 this season including 2-1 in the Pac 12. The only loss came at Arizona St 43-22, and the Trojans have home wins over Minnesota 19-17, Utah 23-14, Syracuse 38-17, and 2 weeks ago against Arizona 48-41. Cal is coached by Jeff Tedford, and is 3-2 including 0-2 in the Pac 12. The Bears have lost 2 games in a row on the road at Washington 31-23 and last Thursday at Oregon 43-15. Cal has home wins over Fresno St 36-21 and Presbyterian 63-12, and a road win at Colorado 36-33 in overtime. The game at Colorado was scheduled before Colorado joined the Pac 12 and wasn’t an official conference game.
Two weeks ago USC hosted Arizona. The Trojans jumped out to a 17-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, and held on for 48-41 win, but the Trojans failed to cover the 12.5 point college football betting line. USC had 582 total yards including 468 passing yards from quarterback Matt Barkley, who also threw 4 touchdowns and an interception. He also had a rushing touchdown. Receiver Robert Woods had 14 catches for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. Marqise Lee had 8 catches, 144 yards, and one touchdown catch. Arizona had 554 total yards, including 425 passing yards, but the Wildcats were unable to overcome 9 penalties and two turnovers.
USC is averaging 454.4 yards and 30 points a game this season. The Trojans are averaging 317.8 passing yards a game. USC has 10 turnovers and have allowed 4 sacks this season. USC is 33/68 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/20 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. USC is allowing 379.6 yards, including 112.4 rushing yards. The Trojans are allowing 26.4 points a game. USC has 10 sacks and has forced 5 turnovers. USC opponents are 34/75 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/17 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. The Trojans average just under 7 penalties a game, but USC opponents average just over 7 a game.
Barkley is 133/188 passing for 1,587 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, along with the rushing touchdown in the Arizona game. Running back Marc Tyler has 72 carries for 338 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 75 yards. Curtis McNeal and D.J. Morgan also get significant carries for the Trojans. Woods has 55 catches, 747 yards, and 6 touchdowns for the Trojans. Lee has 21 catches, 323 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Xavier Grimble has 9catches, but has 3 touchdown catches. Kicker Andre Heidari is 15/15 on extra points and 7/8 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. The Trojans have injury problems with 6 players out indefinitely or for the season.
Last season, in Berkeley, Cal almost beat Oregon losing a narrow 15-13 decision. Last week, the Bears were up 15-14 at halftime in the rematch in Eugene, and it looked like they had figured out the key to slowing down the high powered Oregon attack. However, the Ducks outscored them 29-0 in the second half to win 43-15 and cover the 23.5 point spread. California had 465 total yards including 321 passing yards. Quarterback Zach Maynard threw for 218 yards and a touchdown. Running back Isi Sofele had 12 carries for 119 yards. Receiver Keenan Allen had 9 catches, 170 yards and a touchdown catch. Oregon had 563 total yards including 365 rushing yards. The game featured 18 penalties and a turnover by Oregon.
The Golden Bears are averaging 458.2 total yards and 34.6 points a game. Cal is averaging 300.4 passing yards a game. Cal has 4 turnovers and has allowed 8 sacks. The Bears are 37/90 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/20 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. Cal is holding opponents to 364 total yards and 135.6 rushing yards a game. Bear opponents are scoring 28 points. The Bears have forced 14 sacks and 7 turnovers. Cal opponents are 28/78 on third and fourth down conversions, and 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. Cal is averaging 8 penalties a game but their opponents are averaging more than 9 a game.
Maynard is 92/179 passing with 1,291 yards, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He also has 24 carries for 34 yards. Sofele has 91 carries for 499 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 27 yards. C.J. Anderson has 27 carries, 126 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Allen has 39 catches for 668 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Marvin Jones has 29 catches, 441 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Anthony Miller has only 10 catches but two of them went for touchdowns. Kicker Giorgio Tavecchio is 17/20 on extra points and 8/9 on field goals with a long of 54 yards. Tight end Spencer Ladner is questionable against USC with a knee injury and receiver Kaelin Clay and fullback Eric Stevens are both out for the season.
Cal is 2-3 against the spread and the total is 3-2 in those games. USC is also 2-3 ATS and the total is 2-3 as well. USC has covered the last two games in the series. The Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-10 ATS in the last 14 as a road favorite, including 1-4 a road favorite of 3 points or less, 2-6 ATS in the last 8 October games. Cal is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning road record, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 October games, and overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games, as a home underdog, & against teams with winning records, 1-5 ATS in the last 6 as an underdog, 0-4 following a straight up loss, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games and as an underdog of 3 points or less.
USC has dominated this series recently, and this should be no different. USC does struggle on defense, and Cal is good on defense. Despite that, I see lots of points, and USC should win rather easily.
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