Arizona Wildcats at Southern California Trojans
Los Angeles Coliseum – Los Angeles, California
Saturday, October 1, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports Net
Opening Line: USC -12 1/2
Current Line: USC -12
Opening Total: 57
Current Total: 57
Opening Money Line: USC -525 / Arizona +425
Current Money Line: USC -425 / Arizona +365

Arizona and USC meet for the 35th time ever this Saturday. USC leads the overall series 27-7 including a 24-21 win last year in Tucson. Arizona is 1-3 this season thanks to a very difficult schedule. Arizona coached by Mike Stoops, opened the season with a 41-10 victory over Northern Arizona. Then the Wildcats started a brutal stretch of 3 games against top 10 ten opponents and were destroyed in each game. Arizona lost at then #9 Oklahoma St 37-14, and at home against then #6 Stanford 37-10, and last week at home at then #10 Oregon 56-31. It gets only slightly easier as they have to travel to LA to take on the USC Trojans. The Trojans, coached by Lane Kiffin,  opened the season with three straight wins at home versus Minnesota 19-17, Utah, 23-14, and Syracuse 38-17, before the Trojans were throttled at Arizona St 43-22 last week.

Offense wasn’t the problem for Arizona last week against Oregon as the Wildcats racked up 480 total yards including 398 passing yards and 31 points. That would be enough to beat most teams, but the Wildcats were outgunned by the high octane Oregon attack 56-31. Oregon was up 42-24 at the end of the third and Arizona had a chance to cover the 14.5 point college football betting line. However, the Ducks outscored them 14-7 to beat the number. Oregon had 516 total yards including 415 rushing yards. LaMichael James had 288 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Quarterback Darron Thomas threw 2 touchdown passes and ran for 2 more. Kenjon Barner also had 2 rushing touchdowns. There were no turnovers by either team but Arizona did have 9 penalties.

Arizona is averaging 434.8 yards and 24 points a game this season. Arizona is only averaging 62.2 rushing yards a game. Arizona is 2nd worst in rushing in the country but the passing attack is 5th best with 372.5 yards a game   Arizona has allowed 12 sacks but have only one turnover. The Wildcats are 27/67 on third and fourth down conversions, and 11/15 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. The Wildcats are averaging just under 9 penalties a game. Arizona is giving up 484 total yards including 233.5 rushing yards a game. Both are ranked near the bottom of FCS football. Arizona is allowing 35 points a game. Arizona has 3 sacks and has forced 2 turnovers. Wildcat opponents are 27/59 on third and fourth down conversions and 20/22 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns.

Arizona quarterback Nick Foles has played well this season, despite playing behind a porous offensive line that struggles to pass protect. He is 129/183 passing with 1,447 yards, 10 touchdowns and has yet to throw an interceptions this season. Running back Keola Antolin has 41 carries, 180 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 10 catches. 70 yards, and a touchdown. Ka’Deem Carey has 33 carries for 151 yards, and 3 catches for 13 yards. The Wildcats spread the ball around, as 8 receivers have at least 9 catches, 70 yards, and/or a touchdown. Dan Buckner, Juron Criner, David Roberts, and Gino Crump all have at least 17 catches. Austin Hill only has 9 catches but does have 152 yards. Hill is probable with a concussion after missing the Oregon game. Those 5 are the top receivers and Criner has 21 catches, 295 yards, and 2 touchdown catches. Buckner has 19 catches for 255 yards and a touchdown. Roberts has 21 catches, 209 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Alex Zendejas is 3/4 on extra points and 1/1 on field goals with a 28 yard kick, and he was named the full time kicker to replace the struggling Jamie Salazar who is only 1/4 on field goal kicks with a long of 27 yards.  Salazar also missed an extra point. Arizona has 5 players out for the season including 4 defensive players.

USC had more yardage than Arizona St 402-392, and actually led 22-21 midway through the third quarter. However, Arizona St scored 22 unanswered points to win 43-22. USC mistakes proved to be their undoing as they had 10 penalties and 4 turnovers, including an interception returned 41 yards by ASU in the fourth quarter for a touchdown. USC has 175 rushing ayrds against Arizona St, including 22 carries for 149 yards and a touchdown by Marc Tyler.

USC is averaging 422.5 yards and 25.5 points a game this season. The Trojans are averaging 280.2 passing yards a game. USC has 9 turnovers and have allowed 4 sacks this season. USC is 25/56 on third and fourth down conversions, and 12/17 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. USC is allowing 336 yards, including 108.2 rushing yards. The Trojans are allowing 22.8 points  a game. USC has 9 sacks and has forced 3 turnovers. USC opponents are 27/61 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/11 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. The Trojans average just under 8 penalties a game.

Trojan quarterback Matt Barkley is 101/149 passing for 1,119 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Tyler has 61 carries for 303 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 65 yards. Curtis McNeal and D.J. Morgan also get significant carries for the Trojans. Receiver Robert Woods has 41 catches, 492 yards, and 4 touchdowns for the Trojans. Marqise Lee has 13 catches, 179 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Xavier Grimble has 8 catches, but has 2 touchdown catches. Kicker Andre Heidari is 9/9 on extra points and 5/6 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. The Trojans have injury problems of their own with 5 players out for the season.

USC is 2-2 against the spread and the total is 2-2 as well. Arizona is 1-3 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season. The last 2 games in this series have gone under the total. Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater, 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 following an ATS loss, following a double digit loss at home, and following a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 1-5 in their last 6 conference games and overall, 1-6 in the last 7 on grass, 0-4 in the last 4 against teams with winning records, o-4 as an underdog. The Trojans are 5-2 ATS following both a straight-up loss and an ATS loss, 2-5 in the last 7 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more, and in the last 7 October games.

I am not convinced Arizona’s defense is as bad as the numbers would indicate. They have played three of the most potent offensive teams in the nation in a three week span. We will find out more about the Wildcats against USC who is decent on offense but not spectacular. Te good news for Arizona is that the schedule loosens up after this game and they have their toughest games out of the way, aside from in-state rival Arizona St at the end of the season. I think Arizona has a chance to pull off the upset or at least beat the spread.  I do expect a shootout in this game between Foles and Barkley.

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