#19 Arizona St Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Saturday, November 5, 2011, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: Versus
Opening Line: Arizona St -8 1/2
Current Line: Arizona St -8 1/2
Opening Total: 55
Current Total 56 1/2
Opening Money Line: ASU -330 / UCLA +280
Current Money Line: ASU -330 / UCLA +280
A win for 6-2 Arizona St here at 4-4 UCLA would pretty much lock up the PAC 12 South division title for the Sun Devils. Arizona St is 4-1 in conference and UCLA is 3-2, so a win for Arizona St would give them a 2 game lead with 3 to play and they would hold the tiebreaker. USC is 4-2 but is ineligible to win the division and play in the inaugural Pac 12 title game. A UCLA win would create a tie between the Sun Devils and Bruins, and UCLA would control their own destiny.
Arizona St is coached by Dennis Erickson and has losses at Illinois 17-14 and Oregon 41-27. The Sun Devils have home wins over UC Davis 48-14, Missouri 37-30 in overtime, USC 43-22, Oregon St 35-20, and last week at Colorado 48-14, along with a road win at Utah 35-14. Arizona St is #19 in the BCS standings. UCLA is coached by Rick Neuheisel, and has alternated wins and losses all season. The Bruins have losses at Houston 38-34, Stanford 45-19, and Arizona 48-12, and a home loss to Texas 49-20. The Bruins have home wins over San Jose St 27-17, Washington St 28-25, and last week against California 31-14, along with a road win at Oregon St 27-19. UCLA leads the all-time series 16-10-1 against Arizona St including 8-5-1 in Los Angeles. Last season, the Sun Devils won 55-34 in Tempe.
Last week, Arizona St hosted Colorado. Colorado was never in the game as Arizona jumped out to a 24-0 lead before Colorado got on the board with a 19 yard fumble return for a touchdown. It turned out not to matter as Arizona St cruised to a 48-14 victory to cover the 32 point college football betting line. That was the only turnover for ASU but Colorado had 5 in the rout. The Sun Devils had 11 penalties tough. Arizona St had 522 total yards, including 207 rushing yards. ASU quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns with no picks. Running back Cameron Marshall had 15 carries, 114 yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns. Colorado had 420 total yards, but only 83 yards.
Arizona St is averaging 438.9 yards a game including 294.5 passing yards and 144.4 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are scoring 35.9 points a game. ASU has 13 turnovers and has allowed 20 sacks this season. The Sun Devils are 45/117 on third and fourth down conversions and 31/37 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns. Arizona St is giving up 381.2 total yards a game including 141 rushing yards and 240.2 passing yards. The Sun Devils are allowing 21.5 points a game on defense. ASU has forced 25 turnovers and 19 sacks this season. Sun Devil opponents are 39/125 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/30 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. ASU averages 8 penalties a game for 80 yards. The Sun Devils have 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns.
Osweiler is 189/287 passing for 2,275 yards, 17 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 56 carries for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns. Marshall has 137 carries, 632 yards, and 12 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 145 yards. Jamal Miles and Kyle Middlebrooks also get significant carries. Receiver Gerell Robinson has 36 receptions, 612 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Aaron Pflugrad has 30 catches, 446 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Mike Willie has 24 catches, 347 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Miles has 36 catches, 257 yards, and 5 touchdowns. He also has a touchdown pass in his only attempt of the year. Miles has both a kick return and a punt return for touchdowns, and has over 1,000 all purpose yards. Kicker Alex Garoutte is 34/35 on extra points, and 9/12 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. ASU has 7 players listed on the injury report that are out for the season including 4 defensive players.
Last week UCLA host Cal, and the Golden Bears were 4.5 point favorites on the road. Cal scored first, but UCLA scored 17 unanswered points to take control of the game 17-7 at halftime. Cal pulled to within 3 points but UCLA scored 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win 31-14. UCLA had 386 total yards including 294 rushing yards. UCLA quarterback Kevin Prince threw for only 92 yards but he rushed for 163 yards. He had no touchdowns. Running back Derrick Coleman had 16 carries, 80 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Johnathan Franklin also had a rushing touchdown. UCLA had 2 turnovers, but Cal had 5 turnovers. The Golden Bears had 333 total yards including 134 rushing yards.
UCLA is averaging 383.5 yards and 24.8 points a game. The Bruins are averaging 187.2 rushing yards and 196.2 passing yards a game. The Bruins have 14 turnovers and have allowed 8 sacks. The Bruins are 46/113 on third and fourth down conversions and 28/37 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns. UCLA is giving up 423.2 yards and 31.9 points a game. The Bruins allow 238.6 passing yards and 184.6 rushing yards. UCLA has forced 14 turnovers and 9 sacks so far. Bruin opponents are 71/134 on third and fourth down conversions and 31/34 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. The Bruins have no defensive or special teams touchdowns.
UCLA has alternated quarterbacks this season. Richard Brehaut is 66/119 passing for 935 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 44 carries, 169 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He has missed the last two games with a leg injury, and is doubtful this week as well. Prince is 40/76 passing with 635 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 41 carries for 235 yards. Franklin has 96 carries, 565 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. Coleman has 84 carries for 423 yards and 9 touchdowns. Receiver Nelson Rosario has 35 catches for 614 yards, with no touchdowns. Joseph Fauria has 16 catches for 231 yards and 4 touchdown catches. Four Bruin receivers are suspended for this game, but they are all reserves Kip Smith, Tyler Gonzalez and Jeff Locke have split the kicking duties this season. Smith is 7/8 on extra points and 2/3 on field goals with a long of 38. Locke is 6/9 on extra points and 2/3 on field goals with a long of 51 yards. Smith hasn’t played in 6 games and is doubtful for this game with a hip injury. Locke is probable with a shoulder injury. Gonzalez is 7/7 on extra points and 2/3 on field goals with a long of 42 yards. UCLA has 16 players listed on the injury report.
UCLA is 2-6 against the spread this season and the total is 3-5 in those games. Arizona St is 3-4-1 ATS and the total is 7-1 in those games. The Bruins are 5-14 ATS overall, 12-3 at home against teams with winning road records, 5-11 as an underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points, 8-20 in conference, 5-17 on grass, 1-4 at home and following a cover, and against teams with winning records, and 0-6 after a straight up win. The Sun Devils are 3-0-1 in November, 7-1-2 in conference, 3-1-1 on the road, overall, and after allowing 20 points or less in the previous game, 7-3-1 on grass, 17-8-1 after a straight up win of more than 20 points, 3-9 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, and 1-3-1 following a straight up win.
With Brehaut out for the Bruins, I don’t think UCLA can keep up with the high powered Arizona St attack. UCLA must control the clock with their running game to keep ASU’s offense off the field, if the Bruins have any shot at all. I think Arizona St simply has too much though, and should win this game easily.
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