#2 Southern California Trojans at #21 Stanford Cardinal
Saturday, September 15, 2012, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Stanford Stadium – Stanford, California
Opening Line: USC -9
Current Line: USC -8 1/2
Opening Total: 60
Current Total: 57
Opening Money Line: USC -350 / Stanford +290
Current Money Line: USC -330 / Stanford +280

The #2 Southern California Trojans and #21 Stanford Cardinal open Pac 12 play Saturday in Palo Alto. The teams started playing each other in 1905. This is the 91st meeting between the schools, and USC leads the series 59-28-3. However, Stanford had won the last 3 games against the Trojans and 4 of the last 5. Last season, the Cardinal won 56-48 in triple overtime in Los Angeles.

USC is coached by Lane Kiffin. The Trojans are 2-0 this season with a 49-10 home win over Hawaii and a 42-29 win over Syracuse at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The Trojans are averaging 460 yards per game, including 290.5 passing yards and 169.5 rushing yards per game. USC is allowing 359.5 total yards a game, including 265 passing yards and 94.5 rushing yards. The Trojans are outscoring teams 45.5-19.5 this season.  USC is 0-2 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

USC was a 24.5 point favorite against Syracuse last week and the total was 62.5. Neither team scored in the first quarter. USC scored two touchdowns to begin the second, and Syracuse kicked a field goal as time expired to make the halftime score 14-3 Trojans. USC expanded their lead to 21-3 in the third, but Syracuse scored the last 13 points of the quarter. They went for two to try and make the score 21-18, but missed to make it 21-16. USC expanded their lead to 35-16 in the fourth quarter. Syracuse scored again to make it 35-22, but attempted another two point conversion and failed. USC scored to make it 42-22 with 5:45 remaining. Syracuse scored a late touchdown to make the final 42-29. It was the tenth straight game dating back to last year in which USC  scored over 30 points.

USC had 445 total yards including 258 rushing yards. Quarterback Matt Barkley threw for only 187 yards but he did have 6 touchdown passes along with an interception. Syracuse had 455 total yards including 322 passing yards. USC had 12 penalties for 82 yards and a turnover. Syracuse had 5 penalties for 40 yards and 2 turnovers.

Through two games, Barkley has completed 46 of 68 passes (67.6%) for 559 yards, with 10 touchdowns and one interception. Running back Silas Redd has 24 carries for 163 yards and a touchdown, along with one catch for 41 yards. Curtis McNeal has 16 carries for 73 yards, along with a catch for 20 yards. Receiver Marquise Lee has 21 catches, 263 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with one carry for 23 yards. Robert Woods has 16 catches, 135 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with one carry for 76 yards. No other Trojan receiver has more than 3  receptions this year. Five USC defensive players are listed as questionable or out this week from a unit that wasn’t very deep to begin with because of scholarship limitations from NCAA sanctions.

Stanford is 2-0 this season under coach David Shaw. The Cardinal have wins over San Jose St 20-17 and Duke 50-13, both at home. Stanford is averaging 326.5 yards per game on offense including 203 passing yards and 123.5 rushing yards. The Cardinal have struggled so far on offense as they had to replace quarterback Andrew Luck, now with the Indianapolis Colts. Stanford has played 10 true freshman and 24 players have made their college debut in the first to games this season. Stanford is giving up 336.5 total yards per game, including 287 passing yards and 49.5 rushing yards (#6 nationally). The Cardinal are outscoring opponents 35-15 this season. Stanford is 1-1 ATS and the total is also 1-1 this season.

Stanford was a 16.5 point favorite at home against Duke last week and the total was 55. Stanford jumped out to a 23-0 lead before Duke kicked a field goal with 12 seconds left in the first half to make it 23-3 at the half. Duke didn’t score a touchdown unless than a minute left in the third to make the score 43-13. The Cardinal scored early in the fourth to make it 50-13 and neither team scored again.

Duke actually had more yardage than Stanford 385-373, but the Blue Devils had 4 turnovers. Duke passed for 358 yards. Stanford passed for 281 yards. Though Stanford scored 50 points, they kicked 3 short field goals (all within 35 yards) and also scored on a 76 yard punt return and a 71 yard pick six.

Stanford quarterback Josh Nunes has completed 32 out of 56 passes through two games for 400 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Stepfan Taylor has 40 carries, 185 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 29 yards. Ty Montgomery has 7 catches for 87 yards. Tight end Zach Ertz has 6 catches for 75 yards. Drew Terrell has 6 catches for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns.

USC is 4-0 ATS in Pac 12 games, 5-1 against teams with winning records, 4-1 in road games against teams with winning records, in road games, and after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 5-2 after a straight up win, and on grass, 4-9 after rushing for 200 yards or more, and in September, and 4-10 after scoring 40 points or more.

Stanford is 12-2 ATS in September, 11-2-1 in Pac 12 games, 25-5-1 after scoring 40 points or more, 8-2 against teams with winning records, 4-1 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 23-6-1 after passing for more than 280 yards, 20-6-1 after a cover, 23-7-1 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 16-5-1 on grass, 20-7 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, 21-8 at home, 36-16-1 after a straight up win, 34-16-1 overall and after allowing 20 points or less. The over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between USC and Stanford, including 6-1 in Stanford. The Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 against the Trojans. The road team has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series.

The last two games between USC and Stanford have come down to the final play. This could be another close game. While USC has struggled against the pass, on defense, Stanford has had problems moving the ball so far. I think USC wins a close game, but Stanford covers.

Get this week’s college football picks. Don’t miss out on any more winners this season.