Denver Nuggets AT Golden State Warriors
Feb 9, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line: GS -2
Current Line: GS -2
Opening Total: 220
Current Total: 220.5
Opening Moneyline: GS -140 / Den +120
Current Moneyline: GS -120 / Den +100
While Carmelo’s heart may not be in Denver, he’s continuing to play excellent basketball, showing his professionalism – that he can continue to excel when there’s no good reason for him to be committed to a situation. He’s averaging 32.6 points per game over the last 5 games, but the Nuggets have lost 4 of them. He even matched his career high of 50 points Monday night against the Houston Rockets. The Nuggets still lost.
“When you score 50 points and lose you start thinking why? Why the 50?” Carmelo said following the Rockets’ game. “If we’d have won it would have been totally different.”
Despite all the distractions and the fact that there are only 6 more games before the trade deadline, Carmelo claims that it is all about the present. “We are right there. We always compete, we are right there,” Anthony said. “Record-wise a lot of teams might be better than us, but as far as competing and the level of talent on our team compared to other teams, we are right there.”
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER In 7 of Denver’s last 10 games and they are 2-4 SU In their last 6 games. They are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 on the road. Denver is 7-14 SU in their last 21 on the road and 4-2 SU in their last 6 on the road and Denver is 5-0 SU In their last 5 games against the Golden State Warriors. The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 games against the Warriors and the total has gone OVER In 14 of the last 18 road games against Golden State. Denver is 5-1 SU in their last 6 road games against the Warriors.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State’s last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 9 of their last 13 games. Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at home. The total has gone OVER In 12 of their last 16 at home and Golden State is 10-5 SU in their last 15 at home. Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at home and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 games against the Nuggets. Golden State is 0-5 SU in their last 5 against Denver and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against Denver. Golden State is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Denver Nuggets and the total has gone OVER in 14 of the last 18 home games against the Nuggets. Golden State is 1-5 SU in their last 6 home games against the Nuggets.
Key Matchups:
Carmelo Anthony vs. Dorrell Wright
Carmelo is averaging 35.3 points per game over the last 3 games and just came off a 50 point performance. Dorrell Wright is one of Golden State’s better defenders and a good scorer, though, so Anthony might be slowed — at least a little — tonight. Wright floundered in obscurity for 6 seasons in Miami and has all of the sudden emerged as a legitimate NBA star. He’s putting up career highs in every category by a wide margin, and is now averaging 16.6 points per game, 5.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals, shooting 43.4% from the floor and 40.9% from three. Carmelo isn’t exactly known for being a good defender, so Wright could have a big night. If Wright can get cookin’ from distance (he averages 2.5 threes per night), Golden State could go a long way towards covering the spread and/or winning the ball game. Wright is coming off his first single digit scoring night since November 22nd, and will be sure to be focused and deliberate tonight, after going 3 of 13 from the floor against the Suns on Monday.
Chauncey Billups vs. Stephen Curry
Curry has made a modest improvement in his second NBA season. This year he is putting up 19.1 points per game (up from 17.5 last year), while shooting solid percentages from the floor – 47.8% from the field and 41.1% from three. He’s worlds quicker than Billups and is a better player at this point in their careers, but Billups will still use his veteran guile to hang with Curry and make him work. Billups is day to day with a left knee strain and if he is unable to go, Ty Lawson will start for the Nuggets. It might end up being to Denver’s advantage if Lawson does play because he’s quicker and more able to deal with Curry defensively. Billups is having his worst pro season since before his days in Detroit, though it can partly be attributed to simply playing less minutes. His percentages are still roughly the same (and actually he’s shooting a career high from three), so his play hasn’t been any worse, really. He’s just getting up in years (He turns 35 this year) and is starting to show the natural wear and tear of a guard who has been in the NBA for 16 seasons.
Given Denver’s recent play, it’s easy to see why the Warriors are favored tonight. Denver is, however, the superior team and you have to wonder if that will come into play. Denver is only 9-15 on the road, though.
