Tampa Bay Rays (30-29)  AT Los Angeles Angels (30-31)
June 6th, 2011 at 10:05 PM EST
Opening Line:  TAM -145, LAA +125
Current Line:  TAM -135, LAA +115
Opening Total:  7
Current Total:  7.5

SP:  TAM- David Price, LAA- Tyler Chatwood

The Rays have been struggling and now face a three game set against the Angels.  On May 16th, the Rays were leading the AL East, but this poor stretch has plummeted them to third place tie, and they are four games out of the division lead.  How bad is it?  They’ve dropped 14 of their last 21, although 12 of those losses were against good teams – .500 or better.

They’re amidst an 11 game road trip right now and this is their first chance to face a team with a losing record in a while.  It could be an opportunity for the Rays to get back on track.  Despite having lost 41 of their first 55 games in Anaheim, they have rallied to beat the Angels four of the last five.

Having David Price step to the mound may make things easier.  Price has pitched reasonably well this season, compiling a 6-5 record with a 3.52 ERA, though he has went 1-2 with a 4.39 ERA over his last four starts.  Not getting run support isn’t helping.  In his last four outings, he received 3.74 runs per game.  Compare that to last season’s 6.00 and it’s easy to see why his record has wavered this season.

“Last year, I was pretty lucky. This year, I haven’t been so lucky,” Price lamented. “I feel like I’ve thrown the ball a lot better this year. … It’s just not happening for me right now.”

Taking the mound for the Angels is rookie Tyler Chatwood.  Chatwood was promoted last June after posting an impressive 1.77 ERA at A+ Chatwood.  He struck out 70 batters in 81 innings at the single A level before posting a less impressive 3.82 ERA at AA Arkansas.  His fastball reaches the mid 90s consistently and he has a nice curveball, as well.  Though he was predicted to struggle in his first full major league campaign (PECOTA predicted a 5.74 ERA!), he has impressed and shown why he has drawn comparisons to Jim Palmer.

But it’s tough for Chatwood to win when he receives absolutely no run support.  Last game he held the Royals to five hits over 7 2/3rds innings and pulled the loss in a 2-0 thriller…

The Angeles have hit just .171 with runners in scoring position and they went 2 for 9 in such situations against the Yankees Sunday, causing a 5-3 loss.  Torii Hunter merely chalked it up to the ordinary things that happen in a season:

“That’s the game of baseball. You’re not going to figure it out. This is a crazy game,” outfielder Hunter said. “All you can do is put the bat on the ball, and try to hit it hard and hope it works out.”

Having Howie Kendrick back may make a difference.  He’s hit .445 against the Rays and has the best average of players with at least 100 at bats against the Rays.

Some betting trends:

Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 on the road.  The Rays are 1-5 SU in their last 6 on the road while they have gone 1-5 SU in their last 6 against the Angels, as well.  The Rays are 4-1 SU in their last 5 on the road against the Angels and they are 5-15 SU in their last 20 road games in Anaheim.

The Angels are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 at home.  The Angels are 5-1 SU in their last 6 against Tampa Bay and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5 at home against the Rays.  The Angels are 15-5 SU in their last 20 home games against the Rays.

Chatwood has impressed so far, and this one could very well turn into a pitchers’ duel given the relative success of both pitchers – not to mention the struggling hitting of both teams.  The total is set low at 7.5, and has shifted +0.5 runs since betting opened.