#18 Oklahoma St Cowboys at Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, September 8, 2012, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Arizona Stadium – Tucson, Arizona
Opening Line: Oklahoma St -11
Current Line: Oklahoma St -10 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 70 1/2
Opening Money Line: OSU -370 / Arizona +310
Current Money Line: OSU -400 / Arizona +330
The line for this game has jumped all over the place. It opened at Oklahoma St -11 on Sunday, and bettors moved the Cowboys all the way to -13 1/2 by Monday morning. By Thursday morning the line had steadily decreased to OSU -10, and has fluctuated between 10, 10.5, and 11 since then. I think it is because no one really knows what to make of these two teams. OSU crushed a vastly overmatched Savannah St team 84-0, while Arizona struggled to beat a decent Toledo team in overtime at home.
This is the ninth meeting between Oklahoma St and Arizona. The Cowboys lead the series 5-3, but the Wildcats are 3-1 in Tucson. However, all three of those wins came before 1942, so it doesn’t really mean anything. This will be the third meeting in the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys won 36-10 in the 2010 Alamo Bowl, and 37-14 last year in Stillwater. All six previous meetings occurred between 1931 and 1942.
Oklahoma St is coached by Mike Gundy. As mentioned, Oklahoma St played Savannah St last week in Stillwater. The Tigers are a small FCS school that has won only 4 games in the past 3 seasons. The Cowboys were 58 point favorites in the “contest.” OSU scored 35 points in the first quarter and began to pull their starters early in the second quarter. In a complete destruction, the Cowboys ended up winning 84-0. By the second half, Oklahoma St had in fifth and sixth stringers. You might think they were running up the score, but OSU could have easily scored 100 or more points if they chose to. The Tigers are basically a glorified high school team, and it will only get worse as Savannah St was established as a 70.5 point underdog at Florida St Saturday. (No, that is not a misprint or a typo. That is the spread not the total!)
The Cowboys held the Tigers to 139 total yards and 8 first downs. Each team had 2 turnovers. OSU had 682 total yards including 395 rushing yards. All three Cowboy quarterbacks got a chance to play in the rout. Freshman starter Wes Lunt completed all 11 of his passes for 129 yards before being pulled early in the second. J.W. Walsh completed 13 of 21 passes for 149 ayrds with 2 touchdowns and an interception, along with 3 carries for 29 yards. Clint Chelf threw a late touchdown pass, but threw only 5 passes. OSU had 9 rushing touchdowns. Joseph Randle had 6 carries, 107 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Desmond Roland had 9 carries, 104 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Corey Bennett had 12 carries, 91 yards and a touchdown. Jeremy Smith had only 5 carries, but 3 were for touchdowns. Austin hays, Isaiah Anderson, and John Goodlett were the top receivers. Amazingly, OSU only held the ball for 25 minutes total in the game. They scored their first 70 points in only 10 minutes of total possession time.
Arizona hired former Michigan and West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez to run the program. The Rodriguez era opened at home against Toledo. The Wildcats were 10 point favorites and the total was 64. It turned out to be a tight struggle. The Wildcats kicked a field goal in the first quarter, and the two teams exchanged touchdowns in the second quarter. Toledo took a 14-10 lead at halftime. Arizona regained the lead 17-14 in the third quarter. Toledo tied it up early in the fourth with a field goal, and neither team scored for the rest of regulation. The Wildcats scored first in overtime, and kept the Rockets out of the end zone to take the 24-17 win. The Wildcats had 3 turnovers and missed two 25 yard field goals, including the potential game winner at the end of regulation. Toledo had one turnover, and also missed a field goal.
Arizona had almost 300 more total yards than Toledo (624-358). Wildcat quarterback Matt Scott completed 30 of 46 passes, for 387 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception, along with 14 carries for 74 yards. Running back Ka’Deem Carey had 20 carries, 147 yards, and a 73 yard touchdown run. Austin Hill had 7 catches, 139 yards, and a touchdown. Dan Buckner had 10 catches for 116 yards. Terrance Miller had 6 catches for 80 yards and the game winning TD catch in overtime.
Oklahoma St is 5-1 ATS in road games against teams with winning home records, and in September games, 4-1 after gaining 450 or more yards, 20-6 after passing for 280 yards or more, 15-5 after a straight up win, 20-7-1 in road games, 11-4 after scoring more than 40 points, 19-7 overall, 5-2 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 5-2 in non-conference games, and against Pac 12 teams, 5-2-1 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 7-3 against teams with winning records, 1-3-1 after allowing less than 275 total yards, and 1-4 after allowing less than 20 points.
Arizona is 8-20 ATS after rushing for more than 200 yards, 3-9 against teams with winning records, 1-4 on grass, 1-5 at home, after passing for 280 yards or more, and overall, 0-4 after a straight up win, in non-conference games, and in September.
No one expects Oklahoma St to score 84 points or rush for nearly 400 yards like they did last week. By the same token Arizona should have won by way more than 7 points as they dominated in every phase of the game, but made way too many sloppy mistakes like penalties, turnovers, and missed chip shot field goals. OSU quarterback Lunt, a true freshman didn’t have to do much last week against an inferior team. However, he will have to step up, but the Cowboys do have a strong running game. I think the Cowboys win a shootout.
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