Tennessee-Martin AT Austin Peay
Feb 3, 2011 at 8:30 PM EST
Opening Line: Austin Peay -15
Current Line: Austin Peay -15
Opening Total: 142.5
Current Total: 144.5
Opening Moneyline: Austin Peay -1500 / Tenn-M +1025
Current Moneyline: Austin Peay -1700 / Tenn-M +1000
Tonight’s game brings together two Ohio Valley Conference Rivals. While Austin Peay has been rolling with a 14-9 record and an 8-3 in conference record, Tennessee Martin just fights to stop from being blown out on a nightly basis. Their record is actually better than you would expect given the fact that they have been blown out of a number of games, very badly. Recently, though, their play has been very good as they just had a 4 game winning streak stopped by Murray State.
Tennesse Martin ranks 157th in the country in points scored with 69.9. The problem is that they give up an unacceptable 76.0, and that makes their point differential -6.0. Austin Peay is 46th in the nation in points scored with 75.7 a game and they only give up 67.8, good for a +7.8 point differential.
Some betting trends:
Tennessee Martin is 3-22 SU in their last 25 road games. They are 2-4-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against Austin Peay. They are 1-8 SU in their last 9 road games against Austin Peay and the total has gone OVER in all 5 of the last 5 meetings between the teams at Austin Peay.
Austin Peay is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 gamese and are 8-3 SU over their last 11. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games and they are 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home. Austin Peay is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against Tenn.-Martin and they are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against Tenn.-Martin. The total has gone OVER in 10 of Austin Peay’s last 12 games against Tenn.-Martin and Austin Peay is 8-1 SU in their last 9 home games against Tenn.-Martin.
Tennesee Martin has three good players on their team: Reuben Clayton, Mike Liabo, and Benzor Simmons. All three average between 12.3 points per game and 12.9 and play in the 20s for minutes as Tennessee Martin goes with a 10 man rotation. 6’3″ senior guard Reuben Clayton leads the way with 12.9 points per game and he is shooting 39.3% from downtown (11 of 28). He’s already had 4 games with 19 points or more, so he is capable of big nights. 6’9″ forward Ron Spencer does a good job of protecting the paint for the Skyhawks, and despite playing only 16 minutes a game, averages 2 blocks and 5 boards per game. He’ll patrol the paint and keep Austin Peay from penetrating while he is in. If he played more minutes, the Skyhawks would probably be a much better defensive team, but he is only a sophomore so maybe that will change in time.
Austin Peay is led by TyShwan Edmondson, a 6’4″ junior shooting guard. He averages 18.8 points per game and 2 assists, while shooting 37.4% (55 of 147) from three. He is also outstanding at playing passing lanes, averaging 1.9 steals per contest. He had a 5 steal game in a win over Cal Southern on November 26th and he has scored 20 or more 11 times in Austin Peay’s 25 games. One of his best two scoring nights (he has scored 33 twice) came on December 4th against Eastern Illinois when he went for 33 points, hitting 6 of his 10 threes. His other big night came against Tennessee State, when he hit 7 of 14 threes and again scored 33. When he gets hot, he gets hot, and if he starts to roll, Austin Peay could cover the 15 point spread set by college basketball oddsmakers. John Fraley will patrol the paint for Austin Peay. The 6’8″ junior center is averaging 8.9 poitns per game, 6.6 rebounds per game, and 1.3 blocks. Over his last 4 games he’s avearging 1.25 blocks and he has had 3 games with double figure rebounding. When Tennessee’s perimeter players penetrate, Fraley will be there to change and block shots.
Tonight’s game really shouldn’t be close. Austin Peay has dominated Tennesee Martin, especially at home. However, a 15 point spread is pretty severe. It will take Austin Peay playing their very best basketball for 40 minutes to cover that spread.
