NCAA Tournament West Region Second Round
#2 San Diego St Aztecs vs #15 Northern Colorado Bears
McKale Center, Tucson, Arizona
Thursday, March 17, 2011, 4:40 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Opening Line: San Diego St -17
Current Line: San Diego St -15 1/2
Opening Total: 129
Current Total: 130
Money Line: SDSU -1800 / UNC +1100
San Diego St is having the best season in the history of the program and is looking for their first ever NCAA tournament win in 7 tries. The #2 seeded Aztecs take on the Big Sky champion #15 seed Northern Colorado in the second round of the West region. San Diego St tied with Ohio St and Kansas for the best record in the country at 32-2. The Aztecs only two losses were to BYU. Both teams were in the top ten nationally most of the season and tied for the Mountain West regular season title with 14-2 records. The Aztecs finally solved their BYU problem by dismantling the Cougars 72-54 in the MWC Championship game in Las Vegas last Saturday. San Diego St had previously lost by 13 twice to BYU this season. The Aztecs have won 5 straight games. Northern Colorado is making their first ever appearance in the NCAA tournament. The Bears won the Big Sky regular season and tournament titles. The Bears are 21-10 overall and finished 13-3 in the Big Sky. The Bears have won 7 straight games including 65-60 over Montana in the Big Sky Championship game.The winner of this game will play the winner of Temple and Penn St in the third round.
These two teams have played 6 times in history. San Diego St is 5-1 in those games. The two teams played a home and home series in 2007 and 2008 with each winning on the other team’s court. San Diego St is 20-12 ATS in all games this season, including 13-5 ATS against teams with winning records. The Aztecs are 45-27 ATS as a favorite the last 2 seasons.
Northern Colorado has no significant injuries right now. The Bears are led by guard Devon Beitzel who averages 21.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.5 steals a game. He leads the team in points and steals. Forward Neal Kingman averages 10.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.5 assists a game. Chris Caba averages 9.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.5 assists a game. Elliot Lloyd averages 7.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists a game to lead the team. Forwards Taylor Montgomery and Mike Proctor are the leading rebounders for the Bears with 5.7 and 5.6 a game respectively. Northern Colorado is outscoring opponents 72-66 on the season. The Bears are shooting 43.1% from the field and 38.7% from 3-point range. UNC opponents are shooting 41.1% from the field. The Bears make 77.2% of their free throws. Northern Colorado averages 36 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +5.4. The Bears average 11.8 assists and 14.4 turnovers a game. They force 14.3 turnovers a game on defense. The Bears force 6.2 steals and 2 blocks a game.
San Diego St is pretty healthy right now. The Aztecs are led by Kawhi Leonard. He is averaging a double double with 15.4 points, and 10.7 rebounds to lead the team in each category. He also averages 2.5 assists and leads the team in steals with 1.5 a game. Forward Malcolm Thomas averages 11.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists and leads the team in blocks with 2.1 a game. Senior point guard D.J. Gay is averaging 11.2 points, 2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists to lead the team and 1.1 steals a game. Billy White is averaging 9.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1 steal a game. Chase Tapley is averaging 8.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. San Diego St is outscoring opponents 72-59 on the season. The Aztecs shoot 46.7% from the field and 34.4% from 3-point range. Aztec opponents are shooting 39.6% from the field. SDSU makes 69.8% of their free throws. The Aztecs average 37.4 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +6.7. San Diego St averages 13.6 assists and 11.1 turnovers a game. SDSU forces 12.7 turnovers a game on defense. The Aztecs average 6.2 steals and 4.6 blocks a game.
San Diego St is one of the best defensive teams in the country. Northern Colorado had played some tough teams this season including Arizona, Illinois, and Colorado St. They lost all of those games by double digits. Northern Colorado lives and dies by the three pointer attempting over 20 a game. If the shots are falling they can challenge the Aztecs and make a game out of it. However, opponents are only shooting around 30% from 3-point range against the Aztecs’ perimeter defense. I think Northern Colorado is your typical just happy to be here team and should get rolled by the Powerful Aztecs and their suffocating defense.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot as the tournament gets underway. Don’t mis sout on any more winners for the rest of the tournament.
