Colorado Rockies (6-2)  AT New York Mets  (4-5)
April 11, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST
Opening Runline:  COL -1.5 +150, NYM +1.5 -170
Current Runline:  COL +1.5 -225, NYM -1.5 +190
Opening Moneyline:  EVEN
Current Moneyline:  COL -104 / NYM -106
Opening Total:  8
Current Total: 8.5

SP:  COL- J. Hammel / NYM- M. Pelfrey

Things might appear bleak if one only considered what Mike Pelfrey has done so far.  He’s posted a 15.23 ERA through two games and walked four batters in 4 1/3rd innings in the opening day loss to the Marlins.  Even after giving up 7 runs, the Mets came back to tie the game, before losing 10-7.  “I was bad last week, and I was even worse (Wednesday),” Pelfrey said. “I let them down again. … I’ve definitely got to be better than what happened.”

Then, consider what Pelfrey has done against the Rockies.  He’s beaten them 5 of 6 games since 2008 and in those 5 victories, the Rockies didn’t even manage a single run.  Moreover, Pelfrey is a much better pitcher at home, as he went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA at home last season.  Pelfrey must be careful early on, however, as Colorado has outscored opponents 14-1 in the first inning this season.  Pelfrey’s PECOTA projection is for a 10-10 record while posting a 4.38 ERA.  He’s off to a bad start towards meeting that, but pitching the Rockies scoreless tonight would easily fix that.

Rockies’ starter Jason Hammel has been less successful in New York.  He lost both his outings against the Mets on the road and he had his shortest career start of 1 1/3rd innings in a 7-0 loss in 2009.  Hammel can’t blame the offense for not providing run production.  The Mets put up 5 runs, but Hammel gave up 4 runs in 5 innings, allowing the Mets to lose 7-5.  Hammel’s PECOTA projections are for an 8-10 record with a poor 5.15 ERA.

Dating back to 2003, the Rockies are 4-23 in New York.  Rockies’ manager Jim Tracy is aware of the problems his team has had on the road.

“There were a lot of things we didn’t do well on the road last year,” Tracy said.  “So we went back to the drawing board in spring training. … We have certainly addressed some things. We’ve done a better job of executing and hopefully we’ll take it along with us and take us to a better place.”

Some betting trends:

Colorado is 7-15 SU in their last 22 games and they are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.  Colorado is 3-9 SU in their last 12 on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of their last 18 against the New York Mets.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Rockies’ past 6 games on the road against the Mets and Colorado is 4-21 SU in their last 25 road games against the Mets.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Mets’ last 5 games and the Mets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Mets’ last 5 games at home and the Mets are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games at home.  The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Mets’ last 18 games against the Rockies.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Mets’ last 6 games at home against the Rockies and the Mets are 21-4 SU in their last 25 games at home against the Rockies.

This matchup should be extremely close.  Colorado is the better team, but their struggles in New York are well documented.  Pelfrey has had his way with the Rockies, so a slight edge goes to the Mets for both being at home and pitching Pelfrey.