Houston Astros AT Cincinnati Reds
May 2, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline:  CIN -180 / HOU +160
Current Moneyline: CIN -173 / HOU +163
Opening Total:  8.5
Current Total:  8.5

SP:  HOU- J.A. Happ / CIN- M. Leake

The Reds haven’t been playing good baseball.  They just dropped to 8-8 at home following their
9-5 loss to the Marlins on Sunday.  The Reds began the season with the longest undefeated streak of 5 games but have won just 9 of the last 23 since that beginning.  A good reason for that is poor pitching.  The Reds’ starters have the worst ERA in the majors at 5.28, but in the 13-3 stretch against the Houston Astros, the ERA has been 2.86 while the offense has provided 98 runs.

The offense has still been good for the Reds.  They rank at or near the top in most major statistical categories, but were held to only 2 hits the last time Mike Leake started.  Leake allowed only 2 runs and 7 hits over 7 innings, a “quality start,” as it is known.  He had a bit of legal trouble regarding a shoplifting incident, but he has rebounded mentally from that and is pitching good games.

“He pitched better, actually,” Reds’ manager Dusty Baker said. “That’s something he wanted to prove to us. Hopefully, he’ll have some closure now.”

Leake has been very good in his four career starts against the Astros.  He has recorded 3 straight quality starts and his ERA is 2.49 over those 4 starts.  If he does it again, he could solidify himself a permanent role in the Reds’ rotation, rather than being an injury fill-in as it is right now.

“We’ve got a plan,” Baker told the Reds’ official website. “We don’t necessarily want to say or don’t necessarily want them to know yet. We don’t want them to get ahead of themselves. We want them to go out and pitch and do the best they can to win and go as far as they can go at this point.”

The Astros may be without one of their best hitters in Carlos Lee who collided with Angel Sanchez in the outfield.  He was taken to the hospital and stayed over night.  He didn’t have any rib fractures but is still to undergo a CT scan.

“He’s going to take all kinds of tests and we’ll find out more,” Astros manager Brad Mills said. “When you have a collision like that, we’re going to get everything checked out. It might feel like ribs on the surface, but it could be something else.”

Houston pitcher J.A. Happ has struggled badly this season and has a 6.35 ERA with a  1-4 record.  His last start was not quality; he pitched 5 innings and allowed 5 hits and 2 runs, as the Astros lost 6-5 to the Cardinals.  His PECOTA projection predicted a 10-9 record with a 4.35 ERA, so he is going to have to really turn it on to reach that goal.  Brandon Phillips has hit 4 of 5 from Happ, including 2 home runs.

Some betting trends:

Houston is 6-15 SU in their last 21 road games and the total has gone OVER In 9 of Houston’s last 13 games on the road.  The Astros are 7-18 SU in their last 25 against the Cincinnati Reds and the Astros are 3-13 SU in their last 16 road games against the Astros.

The total has gone OVER In 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games and the total has also gone OVER In 6 of their last 9 at home.  The Reds are 2-6 SU in their last 8 home games and the Reds aer 18-7 SU in their last 25 against the Astros.  The Reds are 13-3 SU in their last 16 home games against the Houston Astros.

Given Happ’s struggles, it’s difficult to imagine Houston winning this game.  Mike Leake has been pitching very well and has a good track record against the Reds, making it a pretty easy decision to wager on the Reds.