San Diego Padres (5-6) AT Houston Astros (3-9)
April 14, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST
Opening Runline: HOU -1.5 +175, SDG +1.5 -205
Current Runline: HOU -1.5 +180, SDG +1.5 -190
Opening Moneyline: HOU -120, STL +100
Current Moneyline: HOU -110, STL +100
Opening Total: 8.5
Current Total: 8.5
SP: SDG- D. Moseley, HOU- B. Norris
The Padres are coming off a homestand in which they finished 3-5, and now embark on a 7 game road trip that begins today in Houston against the struggling Astros. On Wednesday, Orlando Hudson hit a bases laded single in the 9th inning, as the Padres rally for a 3-2 victory over the visiting Reds.
“No matter how you get the win, it’s a huge win after a tough couple of losses,” said Hudson, batting .361 during a nine-game hitting streak.
Despite Hudson’s success driving the Padres to win some games, their team batting average is a dismal .214 and the Padres hit 2 for 22 with runners in scoring position during their three game series against the Reds.
The Astros just dropped 2 of 3 at home against the Cubs. Astros pitchers gave up 16 runs in the 3 games and the last one was a 9-5 loss on Wednesday.
San Diego will send Dustin Moseley to the mound. Moseley is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and has yet to receive a single run of support so far. He gave up one run in 7 innings in a 2-0 loss to the Cardinals on April 3rd, and then he gave up 3 runs in 6 innings in a 4-0 loss to the LA Dodgers Saturday. “It’s baseball,” Moseley said. “You keep going out there, the boys will start coming through. We’ve got a good group here and some good hitters. It’ll work itself out there.”
In Moseley’s short history with the Astros, he has given up 2 runs in 1 inning while he was a member of the Angels in 2007. Moseley’s PECOTA projections predict a 7-8 record with a 5.08 ERA. If the early season of 2011 is any indication of success, Moseley may be a suprise story of the season.
Houston will counter Moseley with Bud Norris, who currently has a 8.10 ERA, and he has lost 3 straight decisions. In his first outing he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings to the Phillies and in his second outing against the Marlins he allowed 4 runs in 6 innings, but did not get a decision as the Astros lost 7-5. “It’s hard to get out there and throw 100 pitches and make 100 of them perfect,” Norris said. Although Norris is 0-1 in 2 starts against the Padres, he has held his ERA to 3.27.
His PECOTA projection is for a 7-8 season with a 4.63 ERA.
Some betting trends:
San Diego is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 6 games. The Padres are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Padres’ last 10 road games. The Padres are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against the Houston Astros. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego’s last 7 games against the Astros and San Diego is 2-6 SU in their last 8 road games against Houston. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games on the road at Houston.
Houston is 3-9 SU in their las 12 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games. The total has gone OVER In 4 of Houston’s last 5 at home and the Astros are 2-4 SU in their last 6 at home. The Astros are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against the Padres and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 against San Diego. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 6 Astros games at home against the Padres and the Astros are 6-2 SU in their last 8 home games against San Diego.
Moseley is a superior pitcher to Norris, but the Padres have to give him some run support. Batting under .220 won’t get it done. Players other than Orlando Hudson are going to have to step up and start getting hits.
