Houston Astros AT Cincinnati Reds
April 6, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST
SP: Hou- Nelson Figueroa, Cin- Edinson Volquez
Runline: Cin -1.5; Hou +1.5
Opening Moneyline: Cin -205 / Hou +175
Current Moneyline: Cin -188 / Hou +178
Opening Total: 8.5
Current Total: 8.5
The Reds haven’t opened 5-0 at home in 31 years and will now have the chance against the horrid struggling Astros. The Reds have been good at home; they went 49-32 at home last year, but this year could be even more promising. The 49 win 2010 was the best since the 53-28 1992 Reds team.
Yesterday the Reds took the game 8-2. “Remember I said that whatever we sold last year was going to be an easier sell this year because of the results,” Dusty Baker said.
Even more important for the Reds is that their players are realizing they can count on their teammates. “I think we have 25 guys who can all do the job,” said Chris Heisey, who had 3 RBIs yesterday. “That’s what it takes – we’re going to keep it rolling.” Indeed the Reds are rolling as the lone undefeated team in the NL.
The Dominican product Edinson Volquez struggled mightily on opening day, posting a 7.50 ERA in a non-decision. If the Reds continue to drive in runs as they did yesterday, it could ease the load and pressure on Volquez and allow him to pick up his first win of the season. Opening day, Volquez had a wild pitch and he gave up three homers, two of which were back to back shots. The only reason Volquez did not pick up the loss is because of Ramon Hernandez’ walk off homer. Moreover, in Volquez’ favor is the fact that the Astros are batting a wickedly horrible .215 through their first four games, and managing only 3.3 runs per game (which is actually high compared to the batting average). Volquez’ PECOTA projections predict a 9-7 season record with a 4.03 ERA. Certainly this will go a long way towards fulfilling that generous projection. Volquez is just one of many players in recent years who has come off a Tommy Johns surgery and returned to top form.
Figueroa was very good last year, posting a 7-4 record with a 3.29 ERA last year in stints with the Phillies and Astros. Last season against Cincinnati, Figueroa went 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA, so he does pitch well to the Reds’ lineup. The problem for him is that the Reds are very hot right now and even a strong pitcher would have trouble with them the way they are rolling right now.
Some betting trends:
Houston is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 games. The total has also gone OVER In all 5 of their last 5 road games and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 on the road. Houston is 6-19 SU in their last 25 games against the Cincinnati Reds and the total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 9 games against Cincinnati. Houston is 2-12 SU in their last 14 games on the road in Cincinnati.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5. Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home and they are 19-6 SU in their last 25 against the Houston Astros. The Total has gone OVER in 6 of the Reds’ last 9 games at home against the Astros and they are 12-2 SU in their last 14 home games against the Astros.
There’s really no reason to expect a reversal of fortune tonight for the Astros. Figueroa’s success against the Reds last year makes a victory plausible, however, especially if Volquez struggles again and harkens the bull pen sooner than preferable for the Reds. It’s a long shot hope for Astros fans, but at this point, that’s about the best they can do.
