Saint Louis Cardinals (21-15) AT Chicago Cubs (15-19)
May 11, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST, TV:ESPN
Opening Moneyline: CHI -115, STL -105
Current Moneyline: CHI -123, STL +113
Opening Total: 8.5
Current Total: 8.5
SP: STL- M. Garza, CHI- J. Westbrook
The Cardinals have now won 4 of their last 5 and 9 of their last 13 and they took the series opener against the Cubs by a score of 6-4. The Cardinals received the unfortunate news before that game that manager Tony LaRussa will miss the next 5 games or so while he waits for the medication to work on his shingles.
“We were glad when he finally went out to find out what’s going on with him,” Cardinals bench coach Joe Pettini said. “Hopefully taking the week off will help him get over this thing for good and hopefully when we get back he’s ready to step back in the dugout.” Pettini will be running the club in the absence of LaRussa.
The Cardinals “rallied to win one for the skipper,” as Albert Pujols continued his hot hitting that followed a horrible start to 2011. He had 4 hits to raise his batting average up to .268 on the season. Pujols’ PECOTA projection calls for a .322 BA with 41 HRs and 121 RBIs. While he’s a far cry from being on pace to reach that lofty projection, his number should only get better on the year as the law of averages takes hold.
It wasn’t that the Cubs didn’t hit the ball well in the series opener, it was that all the hits taht they did have were mere singles. They didn’t manage a single multi base hit. Yet, despite that problem, manager Mike Quade was more upset about the defense. “Probably more upset about the defense, some of the plays we didn’t make,” he said.
Jake Westbrook will take the mound for the Cardinals. He’s struggled badly this year and has a 6.14 ERA. However, he’s been hot of late and has recorded a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts, all games which the Cardinals have won. In his last outing, against the Marlins, Westbrook pitched 6 1/3rds innings, allowing 3 runs while striking out a season high eight batters. Westbrook’s PECOTA projection predicts an 8-7 record with a 4.65 ERA. If he can continue to pitch in the groove he’s been in, he may get below that, but it’s an uphill battle at this point.
Matt Garza takes the mound for the Cubs. He has yet to win a game at home, where he is 0-2 with a good 3.24 ERA. Getting run production will obviously prove crucial, as Garza has the ability to keep teams low on the scoreboard. He didn’t Friday in Cincinnati, however, allowing 5 runs in 6 innings. In his only career start against the Cardinals he gave up 7 runs and 10 hits in 4 1/3rds innings. He’ll have to do much better than that to give the Cubs a fighting chance.
Some betting trends:
Saint Louis is 4-1 SU over their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 14 games. The total has also gone OVER In 6 of their last 7 on the road. The Cardinals are 5-1 SU in their last 6 road games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 against the Cubs. The Cardinals are 3-6 SU in their last 9 against the Cubs and the total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 5 games on the road in Chicago. The Cardinals are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road against the Cubs.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the Cubs’ last 10 games. The Cubs are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games at home and they are 6-3 SU in their last 9 against the Saint Louis Cardinals. The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Cubs’ last 6 games against the Cardinals. The total has also gone OVER in 4 of the Cubs’ last 5 games at home against the Cardinals. The Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home against Saint Louis.
Given Garza’s recent pitching, the Cubs have a good shot at this game, especially in light of Westbrook’s struggles. However, Garza’s only career start against Saint Louis is somewhat troubling. It’s unclear whether it can be written off as an abberant game or the sign of a trend.
