Milwaukee Brewers (21-22) AT San Diego Padres (18-25)
May 19, 2011 at 10:05 PM EST
Opening Moneyline: MIL -115, SD -105
Current Moneyline: MIL -109, SD -101
Opening Total: 7
Current Total: 6.5
SP: MIL- Chris Narveson; SD- Aaron Harang
The Brewers were battling a streak of futility for a long while, but now they seem to have things together and can actually reach the .500 plateau with a win today of the Padres. Last night, they won 5-2, giving them their 8th victory of their last 11 games. They’re batting .276 over that span. Casey McGehee and Rickie Weeks both had a solid span with 14 and 13 hits respectably.
The best find of the streak may have been the emergence of catcher Jonathan Lucroy. In his last 9 games he’s batting .375 with 2 HRs and 10 RBIs. In the sixth inning of Wednesday night’s game he got beaned with the bases loaded and gave the Brewers the edge at that point 3-2, and they went on to score 2 more runs before completing the victory.
Prince Fielder had 2 hits, scored 2 runs and had one RBI nad Ryan Ludwick also had a 2 run homer. The Brewers have won 3 of 4 games and are a hairline favorite in tonight’s game.
San Diego finds themselves entrenched in last place and they have only scored 3 runs in their last 2 games. They aren’t getting hits the few times runners do get into scoring position and they realize that is the problem. “The timely hits are not where we need it to be. Simple as that,” Padres manager Bud Black remarked.
Aaron Harang is still trying to rediscover his magic. Despite a poor ERA (5.05), he is 5-2 on the season thanks to a good bit of run support. Harang totaled only 6 wins in each of the last 3 seasons, despite having a better ERA over that span. In his last 4 starts, he has gone 1-2 with an 8.46 ERA, however, and the Padres have only backed him with 6 runs in his last 4 starts, compared to 16 over his first four starts.
Chris Narveson will take the mound for the Brewers. He is 2-3 on the season with a 4.00 ERA. This could be his first back to back wins of the season. His ERA dropped significantly after he allowed only 1 run in 6 innings against the Pirates on Saturday. Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said he doesn’t feel “his record shows how he’s pitched.” Be that as it may, Narveson’s PECOTA projections for this season predict a 6-6 record in 115 innings pitched with a 4.74 ERA. He looks to be slightly better than that projection, and may post a better record if he receives more run support.
Some betting trends:
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games and the Brewers are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 on the road and it has gone OVER in 7 of their last 8 against the San Diego Padres. Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in their last 7 against the Padres and 5-11 SU in their last 16 games on the road against San Diego.
The total has gone OVER In 7 of San Diego’s last 8 games and the Padres are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games at home. The total has gone OVER In 7 of the Padres’ last 10 games at home and they are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against the Milwaukee Brewers. The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego’s last 8 games against the Brewers and the Padres are 11-5 SU in their last 16 home games against Milwaukee.
Harang and Narveson are similar skill levels at this point in Harang’s career. It’s tough to say that Narveson isn’t actually better, but Harang’s experience always plays a role. MLB Oddsmakers set the line extremely close, basically at even odds.
