Cincinnati Reds AT San Diego Padres
April 12, 2011 at 10:00 PM EST
Opening Runline: SD -1.5 +180, CIN +1.5 -210
Current Runline: SD -1.5 +180, CIN +1.5 -215
Opening Moneyline: SD -120, CIN +100
Current Moneyline: SD -117, CIN +107
Opening Total: 7
Current Total: 7
SP: SD- C. Richard, CIN- S. LeCure
The Reds will be in the hunt for their third straight victory over the Padres tonight. Monday night, Edinson Volquez held the Padres to 2 runs in 6 innings, and the bullpen came in to throw three scoreless innings, while Jonny Gomes and Chris Heisley homered in the 3-2 Reds’ win.
Gomes has been hot. He’s hit home runs in the last two games and has 6 RBIs, as well. The Reds were able to score 3 runs on only 5 hits. Surely the batting average must improve if the Reds are going to continue to win at the rate that they are.
In the September 26, 2010 meeting between the teams, Cincinnati scored 12 runs against Clayton Richard in a 12-2 victory. Richard gave up 6 runs in 5 innings in the loss. T Votto and Brandon Phillips both homered that game. This year Richard is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. His PECOTA projections are for a 10-9 record and a 4.25 ERA, both figures significantly worse than last year when he went 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA.
Sam LeCure will take the mound for Cincinnati. He made his first start of the season on Thursday as he held Hosuton to 2 runs and 3 hits, with 6 strikeouts over 5 innings, but he did not record a decision in that game. LeCure has lost his last 4 decisions to the Padres and has pitched a 4.70 ERA in 7 career starts against San Diego.
San Diego must get bigger contributions from Ryan Ludwick. The slugger hasn’t had a good year since 2008, when he hit .299 with 37 homers and 113 RBIs. His PECOTA projection for the year is .275 BA with 24 HRs and 77 RBIs. San Diego would be happy to get at least that good of a season from the 32 year old left fielder.
Cincinnati is having problems with their leadoff batter, Drew Stubbs. Stubbs is 1 of 17 from the plate this year and did not play in the series opener due to his poor play. “He is missing pitches, getting up in the air a little bit too much,” said Reds manager Dusty Baker. “He needs to observe and simplify things. When you’re a smart person like he is, sometimes you think too much. Sometimes in this game, it’s better to have the ability to not think at all. He’s a smart young man. Consequently, you’re always trying to figure something out. He’ll be fine.” He is likely to play today.
Some betting trends:
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and they are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games on the road. The Reds are 4-10 SU in their last 14 against the Padres and the Reds are 2-6 SU in their last 8 on the road against the Padres.
San Diego is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Padres last 7 games. San Diego is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Padres’ last 8 games at home. San Diego is 10-4 SU in their last 14 games against the Reds and the Padres aer 6-2 SU in their last 8 home games against the Reds.
Cincinnati is not favored in this game despite having a better record than the Padres. Moreover, the Reds have won the last 2 meetings against the Padres, and have that working in their favor.
