Washington Nationals (18-18) AT Atlanta Braves (20-18)
May 12, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline: ATL -205, WAS +175
Current Moneyline: ATL -182, WAS +162
Opening Total: 7.5
Current Total: 7.5
SP: WAS- J. Zimmerman, ATL- D. Lowe
Last game Derek Lowe was unstoppable on the mound and flirted with a no hitter. That’s great for the Braves, but perhaps what’s even better is his track record with the Washington Nationals. He has a 19 2/3rds scoreless innings streak against the Nationals, so if he keeps up his end of the bargain, Atlanta will barely have to score to win. He lamented missing the no hitter, but kept his stance realistic regarding the rare feat. “I knew (the no-hitter) wouldn’t be happening,” he said, then speaking of his blister on his foot… “I knew it would come to an abrupt end. I’m disappointed in my skin.”
On March 31st, Lowe threw 5 2/3rds scoreless innings while allowing only three hits — all singles. The difference for Lowe in 2010 was that he rediscovered his slider and he’s been moving it effectively in his pitches this season. His end to 2010 was phenomenal and his 16-12 final record is more than respectable. In 193 innings pitched, he had a 4.00 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Getting off to a good start this season only furthers the possibility that he will exceed his projected stats of 13-11 with a 4.14 ERA, as rendered by the PECOTA projection.
This third game will give the favored Braves a chance to make up some ground on the 24-12 Phillies who have a 5 game lead over the third placed Braves. If the playoffs started today, the Braves would be 2 games out of the Wild Card spot, so moving up in the standings is imperative, early though it may be. But the Nationals have taken the first two games and utility infielder Alex Cora realizes the significance of the game for the Nats.
“From where we started the road trip to now, with a chance to sweep these guys, is big for this team,” said Cora, who hit a game tying 2 run single.
Washington will send Jordan Zimmerman to the mound. His last start against the Braves was not a quality one, pitching only 6 innings and giving up 3 runs (only 2 of which were earned) in 6 innings of a 11-2 loss to the Braves. He was having issues controlling the ball but in the 3-2 10 inning victory over Florida, he threw 19 consecutive strikes at one point and his pitching appears to be back in top form.
His PECOTA projection for the season is for a 6-6 record with a 4.27 ERA. If his arm holds up, he’ll pitch considerably more than the projected 86 innings pitched. During his initial return, he was able to throw all four of his pitches for strikes and his fastball was creeping into the mid 90s again. He was at one point regarded as a high prospect, but after surgery so much can change. He’s looked good so far in 2011, though, so Nats fans and players are keeping their fingers crossed for the hurler.
Jayson Werth may make a difference for the Nationals, however, as he has gone 7 of 25 off Lowe with a home run in his career, significantly better than most of his teammates have faired against Lowe. Lowe has 14 RBIs this season and 7 of them have come in the last 5 games. Laynce Nix has also been hitting well and has gone 4 of 9 so far in this series. It may all be for naught though against a pitcher that has had so much success against the Nats.
Some betting trends:
Washington is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 13 of Washington’s last 19 games on the road. The Nats are 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of their last 18 against the Atlanta Braves. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against Atlanta, however, while the Nats are 7-3 SU in their last 10 against Atlanta. The Nats are 7-3 SU in their last 10 against the Braves and Washington is 5-1 SU in their last 6 road games against the Braves. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington’s last 7 games on the road against the Hawks.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta’s last 17 games and the Hawks are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games. The Hawks are 5-2 SU over their last 7 at home and the total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 7 at home. It has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 18 against the Washington Nationals and it has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games against the Nats. The Braves are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against the Nats and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 games at home against the Nats. Atlanta is 1-5 SU in their last 6 home games against the Washington Nationals.
Given Lowe’s dominance, logic would seemingly dictate that Atlanta avoids being swept in this series and wins tonight’s game. The Nats looked impressive in the first two games, having little problem with run production as they scored 7 runs in each game, but tonight it won’t prove to be so easy and I expect that Nats to have lot of problems offensively against a pitcher that has dominated them in the recent past.
