Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, Washington
Sunday, October 18, 2015, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Seattle -6 1/2
Current Line: Seattle -7
Opening Total: 41 1/2
Current Total: 40 1/2
Opening Money Line: Seahawks -280 / Panthers +240
Current Money Line: Seahawks -310 / Panthers +255
The 4-0 Carolina Panthers are one of five undefeated teams left in the NFL entering week six and are coming off their bye. Yet, they are a seven point road underdog against a 2-3 team. How can this be, you might ask. Well, when said team is the two time defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks who are desperate for a win and almost unbeatable at home, that is how. The Panthers are the first 4-0 team to be a touchdown underdog in their fifth game since the 1998 Minnesota Vikings upset the Green Bay Packers on the road.
Seattle leads the series 7-2 against Carolina. The Seahawks have won five straight games in the series. The two teams met twice last year, with the Seahawks winning 13-9 in Charlotte in the regular season. Seattle also won 31-17 in the NFC Divisional playoffs at home last January. This is the first regular season meeting in Seattle between the teams since 2010.
Carolina is coached by Ron Rivera. The Panthers are in sole possession of first place in the NFC South after the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons lost Thursday night at the New Orleans Saints. Carolina has road wins at the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-9 and two weeks ago at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37-23. The Panthers also have home wins over the Houston Texans 24-17 and Saints 27-22.
The Panthers were 3 point favorites at Tampa Bay and the total was 40. Carolina jumped out to an early 10-0 lead and would take a 17-10 lead into halftime. Carolina expanded the lead to 31-10 in the third and would cruise to the 14 point win. Although Carolina scored 37 points, they only had 244 total yards. The Panthers had two defensive touchdowns and three field goals. Tampa racked up 411 total yards, but had five turnovers. Carolina is 3-1 ATS and the total is 2-1-1 this season.
Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. Seattle is tied with the St. Louis Rams and both teams are 2 games behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West. The Seahawks have home wins over the Chicago Bears 26-0 and Detroit Lions 13-10. Seattle has road losses at the Rams 34-31 in overtime, Green Bay Packers 27-17 and last week at the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 in overtime.
Seattle was a 3 point underdog at Cincinnati and the total was 44.5. After Cincinnati took an early 7-0 lead, Seattle scored 24 unanswered points including a 23 yard fumble return for a touchdown in the third quarter. The Seahawks took that lead into the fourth, but the Bengals would rally with 17 fourth quarter points. Bengals’ kicker Mike Nugent kicked a 31 yard field goal as time expired to send the game into overtime. After three punts in overtime, including 2 by the Seahawks, the Bengals completed the comeback with a 42 yard field goal with just over three minutes left. The two teams combined for over 800 yards of offense and 43 first downs. Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.
Carolina is outscoring teams 27-18 this season. The Panthers are #6 in scoring and #4 in points allowed. Carolina is averaging 322 total yards per game including 190 passing and 132 rushing. The Panthers are #4 in rushing but #25 or worse in total and passing offense. On defense, Carolina allows 339 total yards including 247 passing and 92 rushing yards. The Panthers are #6 in rush defense and #10 in total defense. Carolina is 22/54 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 29/68. The Panthers have forced 9 sacks and allowed 7 this season. Carolina is +8 in turnovers. The Panthers have 3 defensive touchdowns and have allowed a special teams touchdown.
Quarterback Cam Newton has completed 55.4% of his passes for 809 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 43 carries for 195 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers might not seem that impressive but the Panthers don’t really have a number one receiver after Kelvin Benjamin suffered a torn ACL in the pre-season.
Tight end Greg Olsen has 17 catches for 243 yards with 2 touchdowns. Receiver Ted Ginn, Jr. has 12 catches for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns. Corey Brown, Brenton Bersin, Jerricho Cotchery and Ed Dickson will also get some catches, but none has more than 6 this season.
Running back Jonathan Stewart has 59 carries for 220 yards, plus 5 catches. Mike Tolbert and Cameron Artis-Payne will also get some carries. Six defensive players are listed on the injury report including Jared Allen and Frank Alexander. Linebacker Luke Kuechly is expected to return after missing the last three games because of a concussion in week one.
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Seattle is outscoring teams 22-20 this season. The Seahawks are #9 in points allowed. Seattle is averaging 356 yards per game on offense including 214 passing yards and 142 rushing. The Seahawks are #26 in passing and #1 in rushing. On defense, Seattle is allowing 307 total yards including 214 passing and 93 rushing yards. The Seahawks are #7 or better in all three categories. Seattle is 30/74 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 22/63. The Seahawks have forced 22 sacks and allowed 10 this season. Seattle has two special teams touchdowns and 2 defensive touchdowns, and have allowed one of each as well. The Seahawks are even in turnovers.
Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 70.7% of his passes for 1,192 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 37 carries for 198 yards. Running back Marshawn Lynch is probable with a hamstring injury after missing the last three games. He has 38 carries for 128 yards, along with 9 catches for 61 yards. Thomas Rawls has 58 carries for 326 yards and a touchdown. Fred Jackson will also get some carries. He has 52 rushing yards, but does have 10 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown.
Receiver Doug Baldwin has 23 catches for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jermaine Kearse has 18 catches for 274 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Jimmy Graham has 21 catches for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie receiver Tyler Lockett has 12 catches for 138 yards. However, he has a kick return and a punt return both for touchdowns. Ten defensive players are listed on the injury report.
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Carolina is 4-1 ATS in road games, 7-2 in October, 11-4-1 in week six, 5-2 after scoring more than 30 points, after a straight up win and overall, 19-8-1 against teams with losing records, 7-19-1 after passing for less than 150 yards, and 0-6-1 after gaining less than 250 total yards. The last 4 games in Seattle in this series have gone over the total.
Seattle is 6-2-2 ATS after allowing 350 total yards or more, 6-2-1 against teams with winning road records, 35-15-2 on fieldturf, 13-6 after a straight up loss, 38-18-1 against NFC teams, 27-13-1 at home, 18-39-2 in October, 3-11 in week six, 1-5-1 overall, 0-3-1 against teams with winning records, and 0-4 after allowing more than 250 passing yards. The home team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The Seahawks have covered 4 of the last 5 game sin this series.
Seattle has had three very tough road losses. Even at home though, they have struggled on offense. The return of Lynch should help but I don’t know if he will be 100%. Rawls had a huge game against the Bengals last week with 169 yards and a touchdown. This is the first game for Carolina this season outside of Charlotte or Florida. I think the desperate Seahawks win at home but seven points seems like a lot.
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