Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Sunday, 10/7/12, 4:25 PM EST, TV: CBS
Opening Point Spread: New England -6.5
Current Betting Line: New England -6.5
Opening Total: 51.5
Current Total: 52.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Denver’s goal is certainly to remain close to New England until the final 15 minutes, as the team leads the entire NFL with a plus-45 scoring differential in the fourth quarter this season. The Broncos didn’t need to rely on that statistic last week, capturing a 37-6 home win over the Oakland Raiders as 6.5-point home favorites, while falling just short of the posted total of 47. The franchise trails the San Diego Chargers by a game in the AFC West standings. Denver is 2-7 ATS in October the last two-plus years, while the OVER is 7-2 in that situation.
The Broncos suffered two lopsided losses against the Patriots this year, but now travel to Foxborough with Peyton Manning under center. He is coming off a spectacular week, completing 30 of 38 passes for a season-high 338 yards and three touchdowns. “Just trying to keep making progress somehow,” stated Manning this week. Denver is 25-17 all-time in this series, including a 9-8 record when going on the road.
New England returns to the confines of Gillette Stadium after earning a 52-28 win over the Buffalo Bills as 3.5-point road favorites, while going above the total for a second consecutive week. The Patriots have won six of nine regular season meetings when Tom Brady goes up against Manning, but it’s important to note that those games happened against the Indianapolis Colts. Brady has compiled a 3-6 record against Sunday’s opponent when combining regular season and playoff contests. New England is 9-10 ATS as a home favorite over the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 14-6 in that situation.
The Patriots are 32-6 in the month of October since 2003, which includes a dominating 18-1 record at home. New England owns the best record in this particular month in that span among NFL teams. On the defensive side of the ball, the unit should be concerned with allowing 300-plus yards in each of the last two weeks, but it also forced six turnovers in those two contests.
Sports bettors will likely back the Broncos due to the underdog covering five consecutive games with Brady going against Manning, while the Patriots are 2-5 ATS at home in this series.
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