NFL Week 3 Picks: New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 9/23/12, 8:20 PM EST, TV: NBC
Opening Point Spread: Baltimore -3
Current Betting Line: Baltimore -1.5
Opening Total: 48.5
Current Total: 49.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Baltimore Ravens are 0-6 SU against the New England Patriots in six regular-season meetings

New England suffered a disappointing 20-18 setback to the Arizona Cardinals as 13-point home favorites last week, but it has a great chance of getting back on the right track in this spot. The Patriots have won all six regular-season meetings with the Ravens, while they’ve dropped back-to-back games just three times since 2003. “I don’t know if we’ve ever had an easy game agains these guys,” commented Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. “They make you earn every yard you get.” New England is 4-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last two-plus seasons, which is important to note when making your pro football predictions.

The Patriots have the best regular-season road record at 87-58 since the 1994 season, while going 15-4 all-time against the AFC North since 2002. Brady has won five of six meetings in this series, including the postseason, but has compiled a 69.1 passer rating. He will be tested in a major way inside M&T Bank Stadium, considering one of his main weapons is injured, with tight end Aaron Hernandez being out with an ankle injury that he suffered last week against the Cardinals.

Baltimore is certainly revenge-minded in his high-profile affair, suffering a 23-20 loss to Sunday’s opponent in last year’s AFC championship game. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed 22-of-36 passes for 306 yards in that contest. Head coach John Harbaugh has delivered in a big way in the season’s opening month during his time on the sideline, leading the franchise to a league-best 10-4 record in September. Baltimore is 8-9-1 ATS as a home favorite over the last two-plus seasons, but has managed to win 17 of those 18 contests in straight-up fashion.

The Ravens will look to continue their 13-game win streak immediately following a loss, which is the longest such run in the NFL. Baltimore has outscored its opponents by an 861-439 margin in home games since 2008, with the defense surrendering just 13.3 points per game. Under Harbaugh’s leadership, the team is 5-2 against AFC East division opponents, but both losses have come against the Patriots.