NFL Week 16 Picks: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 12/22/13, 1:00 PM EST
Opening Point Spread: Kansas City -6.5
Current Betting Line: Kansas City -6.5
Opening Total: 41.5
Current Total: 45
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Indianapolis Colts have turned the ball over just three times in seven road games

Indianapolis has alternated wins and losses over its seven games, as it comes off a 25-3 setback to the Houston Texans as six-point home favorites in Week 15, while winning the statistical battle for the first time in four contests. The Colts offensive line has allowed just one sack for one year over the last two weeks, which is important to consider when making your NFL betting picks, especially considering the Chiefs are third in the NFL with 43 sacks. Indianapolis is 1-5 SUATS on the road with a betting total of 42.5 to 45 the last two-plus seasons.

The Colts have a chance of pulling off an upset if they protect Andrew Luck, who is just 248 yards short of setting an NFL record for the most passing yards in a player’s first two seasons. Indianapolis and Kansas City are tied for the fewest turnovers in the league with 14, which can’t be ignored when looking over the pro football odds page. The franchise has only given the ball away three times in seven games away from Lucas Oil Stadium in 2013.

Kansas City has won by a combined 60 points the past two weeks, including a 56-31 blowout victory over the Oakland Raiders as 6.5-point road favorites last time out, while going OVER the betting total for a fourth consecutive affair. The Chiefs are first in the AFC and fourth in the league in allowing just 18.2 points per game, while the offense has scored 48 touchdowns—ranking as the eighth-best single-season total in franchise history. The team’s 11 miscellaneous touchdowns are tied for third in NFL history. Kansas City is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points since the 2011 season.

The Chiefs have a plus-144 scoring differential, which is second in the AFC and third in the NFL, as former San Francisco 49ers signal-caller Alex Smith has made a major difference in running the offense under first-year head coach Andy Reid. He has played a big part in the franchise leading all teams with a plus-21 turnover differential.