Packers/Bills
Time NOON CST
Spread: GB -5.5
M/L: GB -220; BUF +180
Total: 50.5
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Green Bay Packers are 10-3 and sit atop the NFC North Division as most expected the team would. GB has used its devastating pass attack once again this season and ranks 6th in the NFL in pass yardage (273.2) while also ranking 14th in rushing yardage (114.3). The Packers will host the Buffalo Bills where the NFL Betting sees a line of 5.5 points in favor of the visiting Packers.
The Packers have won five straight and nine of its last ten games, since beginning the season 1-2. Last week, GB defeated Atlanta 43-37, holding the Falcons off despite having been outscored 20-9 in the fourth quarter. The four contests prior to that, the Packers had not allowed more than 21 points to an opponent.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3,652 yards this season at a 66.3 percent clip with an 8.8 yard per attempt average. He’s thrown 8.4 percent of his passes for TD and has just three INTs on the year to his 35 TDs. Rodgers has incurred 26 sacks.
Rodgers’ top two receiving targets are Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Nelson has caught for 1,265 yards on the season with 78 receptions on 112 targeted passes. He’s leading the team also in yards per attempt at 16.2. Cobb has caught for nearly 1,000 yards and averages 14.2 per attempt, and the two of them have scored 22 touchdowns between them.
In the backfield, Eddy Lacy has been solid and steady. Lacy rushed a TDs last week and 73 yards. He has seven TDs on the season and has been over 70 yards rushing in the past three games, accented by a 125 yards effort in a 24-21 win over the vikings on Nov 23. Lacy has a hip injury but he is expected to be able to go for this contest.
No. 2 back James Starks has rushed for 285 yards on 69 attempts while also having caught for 108 yards on 13 receptions. Rodgers has been effective in limited carries and actually leads the team in yards per carry (6.0), while ranking third in total yardage via rush (228).
Buffalo is 7-6 and in 2nd place in the AFC East. The Bills lost 17-24 last week to the Denver Broncos after having won in Weeks 12 & 13 over New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns. The Bills have been good limiting pass offenses, holding teams to 212.8 yards per game in the air. Similarly, the rush D has been very good too, ranking 8th in the NFL surrendering 99.2 yards per game.
The Bills offense has been far less overwhelming. Buffalo ranks 17th in pass offense and 25th in rush offense, and has only scored 26 points or more in four games this season. Veteran Kyle Orton has been an improvement on E.J. Manuel, but that doesn’t really say much since Manuel was throwing just 58 percent for completion. Orton had a 355 yard game last week in the loss to the Broncos, though that was only his second game over 300 yards this season.
Even so, Orton has thrown 64.7 percent for completion this year and has 14 TDs with seven INTs. For a 10th year veteran, it should be at least expected as minimum production, but Orton really was a pretty big disappointment for the Bears for three seasons and save his 2009 and ’10 stints in Denver, hasn’t really mattered much.
What has really killed the Bills the most is the lack of backfield production. Fred Jackson has 386 yards but has been good for just 4.0 yards per carry and has just two TDs on the season. Anthony Dixon has also been good for just 4.2 yards, and C.J. Spiller is out for the season, but hadn’t been faring much better. Orton can’t carry the ball well, either. So, the fact that the Bills have mediocre options at WR and bad ones at RB doesn’t bode well.
WR Sammy Watkins has been the main source of life at WR. Watkins has 822 yards and five TDs on the season. Robert Woods trails him with 586 yards and an 11.3 yard per reception average. Between Watkins and Woods’ TDs, the eight account for nearly half of Buffalo’s total reception TDs (19).
The total set in this game by live NFL lines is 50.5 points.
TRENDS:
Green Bay: OVER 5-0 in Packers last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in previous game; Packers are 4-0 ATS in last 4 after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game; OVER 4-0 in last 4 games in Dec.
Buffalo: UNDER 5-0 in Bills last 5 games overall; UNDER 6-0 in last 6 following SU loss; UNDER 5-0 in last 5 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in previous game.
Head-to-head: Home team 4-0 ATS in last 4 meetings and Favorite 4-0 ATS in last 4 meetings.
