NFL Week 11 Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Sunday, 11/17/13, 4:25 PM EST
Opening Point Spread: New York -6.5
Current Betting Line: New York -3
Opening Total: 43
Current Total: 41
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The New York Giants have won three games in a row

Green Bay has dropped back-to-back games, including a 27-13 setback to the Philadelphia Eagles as one-point home underdogs last Sunday, while going UNDER the betting total for the fifth time in six contests. The Packers are 33-10 in their last 43 regular-season games, which is important to consider when making your NFL expert picks in Week 11. Offensively, the team ranks fourth in the league in averaging 4.84 yards per carry, which is big when facing an opponent that can’t run the ball. Green Bay is 2-4 SUATS as underdogs the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 4-2 in that situation.

The Packers have averaged 28.0 points on the road since 2011—trailing only the New England Patriots in that particular category. Green Bay has been ranked in the top five in the league in rushing at various points this season, which is the first time it has done so at any point since finishing the 2003 campaign in the No. 3 spot. The team will try to pull off an upset without the services of star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is out with a broken collarbone.

New York has won three games in a row since starting the season with an 0-6 record, as it comes off a 24-20 victory over the Oakland Raiders as 7.5-point home favorites, while winning the statistical battle in all three of those affairs. The Giants are trying to get their running game going, as they rushed 16 more times than they threw it last week, which can’t be ignored when looking over the pro football odds page. New York is 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points since 2011, with the UNDER going 5-4 in those nine opportunities.

The Giants need a big performance out of two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Eli Manning, but he enters with a passer rating of 68.5. He has thrown for 926 yards and nine touchdowns with a 109.1 rating in his last three meetings with the Packers. New York has dropped to 30th in points per game partially due to converting just half of its red zone trips into touchdowns.