Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, November 26, 2015, 4:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Opening Line: Dallas -1
Current Line: Dallas Pick
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 45 1/2
Opening Money Line: Cowboys -116 / Panthers -104
Current Money Line: Cowboys -110 / Panthers -110
The 10-0 Carolina Panthers look to remain undefeated as they travel to the 3-7 Dallas Cowboys for a Thanksgiving Day game. Carolina is in first place in the NFC South and is at least two games clear of every other team in the NFC. Dallas is in last place in the NFC East. Despite a seven game losing streak without quarterback Tony Romo, the Cowboys are are only two games out of first in the NFC East. Romo returned last week in a win over the Dolphins.
Dallas leads the series 9-3 against Carolina. The Cowboys have won five straight games against the Panthers, including 19-14 in Charlotte in 2012 in the last meeting. Two of Carolina’s three wins in the series came in playoff games in Charlotte in 1997 and 2004.
Carolina is coached by Ron Rivera. Carolina has road wins at the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-9, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37-23, Seattle Seahawks 27-23 and Tennessee Titans 27-10. The Panthers also have home wins over the Houston Texans 24-17, New Orleans Saints 27-22, Philadelphia Eagles 27-16, Indianapolis Colts 29-26 in overtime, Green Bay Packers 37-29 and Washington Redskins 44-16 last week.
The Panthers were 7 point favorites against the Redskins and the total was 44. The teams were tied at 14 at the end of the first quarter. However, Carolina would score 30 straight points. The Redskins scored a meaningless safety with 16 seconds left to make the final 44-16. Carolina had 368 total yards to 186 for the Redskins. Cam Newton threw 5 touchdown passes, which was the same number of turnovers the Redskins had. Carolina is 8-2 ATS and the total is 6-3-1 this season.
Dallas is coached by Jason Garrett. The Cowboys have a home win over the New York Giants 27-26 and road wins at the Eagles 20-10 and Miami Dolphins 24-14 last week. Dallas has home losses to the Atlanta Falcons 39-28, New England Patriots 30-6, Seattle Seahawks 13-12 and Eagles 33-27 in overtime, plus road losses at the New Orleans Saints 26-20 in overtime, Giants 27-20 and Buccaneers 10-6. During the seven game losing streak, Dallas led in the fourth quarter of every game except against the Patriots.
Dallas was a 2.5 point favorite at Miami and the total was 45. As mentioned earlier, Tony Romo returned last week from a broken collarbone suffered in week two. Granted it was against the Dolphins who entered the game with a 4-5 record, but the offense looked so much better under Romo than under the combination of Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel. Romo can simply make some throws that Weeden and Cassel can only dream of making. Dallas jumped out to a 14-0 lead early, but the Dolphins would tie it up late in the third. Dallas scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to snap the losing streak. Dallas had 386 total yards to 210 for Miami. Romo was a little rusty and did throw two terrible interceptions. Dallas is 3-7 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season.
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Carolina is outscoring teams 30-19 this season. The Panthers are #3 in scoring and #5 in points allowed. Carolina is averaging 354 total yards per game including 214 passing and 140 rushing. The Panthers are #4 in rushing but #28 in passing. On defense, Carolina allows 323 total yards including 228 passing and 95 rushing yards. The Panthers are in the top ten in all three categories. Carolina is 53/136 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 61/160. The Panthers have forced 31 sacks and allowed 20 this season. Carolina is +13 in turnovers. The Panthers have 3 defensive touchdowns and have allowed 2 special teams touchdowns.
Quarterback Cam Newton has completed 56.9% of his passes for 2,283 yards with 20 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 86 carries for 382 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Newton is considered an MVP contender despite the Panthers not really having a number one receiver after Kelvin Benjamin suffered a torn ACL in the pre-season.
Tight end Greg Olsen has 48 catches for 718 yards with 6 touchdowns. Receiver Ted Ginn, Jr. has 30 catches for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns. Devin Funchess has 16 catches for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jerricho Cotchery has 19 catches for 253 yards and a touchdown. Corey Brown has 17 catches for 233 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Ed Dickson has 11 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown.
Running back Jonathan Stewart has 190 carries for 764 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 9 catches and a touchdown. Mike Tolbert and Cameron Artis-Payne will also get some carries. Tolbert has 11 catches for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report, as are two offensive linemen.
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Dallas is being outscored 23-19 this season. The Cowboys are #27 in scoring. Dallas averages 343 total yards per game on offense including 220 passing and 124 rushing. The Cowboys are #8 in rushing but #26 in passing. On defense, the Cowboys are allowing 336 yards per game including 231 passing and 104 rushing yards. Dallas is #14 or better in all three categories. Dallas is 53/134 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 46/126. Dallas has forced 19 sacks and has allowed 22 this season. The Cowboys are -9 in turnovers. Dallas has 2 defensive touchdowns and has allowed 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns.
Romo has thrown for 778 yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has 4 interceptions. Cassell threw for 809 yards with 4 touchdown and 5 interceptions, plus 8 carries for 66 rushing yards. Weeden threw for 738 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions plus 30 rushing yards. Weeden was released last week and signed with the Houston Texans.
Running back Darren McFadden has 159 carries for 623 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 27 catches for 212 yards. Joseph Randle had 76 carries for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 10 catches for 86 yards. He was released a few weeks ago due to some off the field issues. Lance Dunbar had 67 rushing yards, but did have 21 catches for 215 yards before tearing his ACL.
Tight end Jason Witten has 51 catches for 472 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Terrance Williams has 29 catches for 452 yards and 3 touchdowns. Cole Beasley has 33 catches for 348 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Dez Bryant missed several weeks after suffering a broken foot in week one. He has 21 catches for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.
Carolina is 6-0 ATS after gaining more than 350 total yards, 5-0 against NFC teams, 4-0 in road games, 6-1 after a straight up win, and overall, 4-1 against teams with losing records, and after a cover, 7-2 after scoring more than 30 points, 5-2 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 7-3 after allowing less than 250 total yards, 18-8 against teams with losing home records, and 1-4 in Thursday games.
Dallas is 4-1 ATS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 10-4 in week 12, 2-5 after allowing less than 250 total yards, 5-13 in November, 3-8 after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 2-6 overall, 1-4 in Thursday games, 1-5 at home, after gaining more than 350 total yards, and against NFC teams, 1-7 on fieldturf, and 0-4 after a cover. The Cowboys have covered four of the last five against the Panthers.
Before the season Dallas was considered a Super Bowl contender. Injuries to Romo and Bryant derailed those dreams, but this team has the talent to make a playoff run especially in the weak NFC East. Still, the Cowboys almost have to run the table. Ironically, Dallas is trying to do what Carolina did last year. The Panthers won six straight games to win the NFC South, albeit with a losing record. I think Dallas has a legitimate shot of pulling off the upset.
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