Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Time: 7:30 PM CT (NBC)
Spread: GB -3
Total: 45.5
Betting odds c/o Pincle
Both the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers have clinched postseason berths and neither team has hopes of earning a bye. But the NFC North crown must be won, and the Packers have done it four-time straight. NFL oddsmakers favor the Pack by 3-points in this game which will air at 7:30 PM Central on NBC.
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The winner of this game claims the division crown and the No. 3 seed in the NFC Playoffs. The loser will be the No. 5 seed barring the Seattle Seahawks upsetting the Arizona Cardinals. If that happens, Minnesota falls to the No. 6 seed and has to come back to Green Bay for the playoff opener.
Even so, Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater is rational about this game. “We can’t let the game become too big,” Bridgewater said. “We know that we’re playing for a lot right now…we just have to go out there and be ourselves.”
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The Vikings have been playing good football of late, too, so there is that: The Vikings dominated both Chicago and the New York Giants to win by a combined margin of 53 points. Three weeks ago it fell to the Cardinals 23-20 on a late field goal. But Green Bay was dominated by Arizona, so it would stand to reason that the Vikings can prevail in this, howsoever difficult victories are to come by in Green Bay.
The Packers mostly have not been the dominant offensive team it usually is. Aaron Rodgers was sacked eight times last week and fumbled twice which both were returned for TDs. It is hard to place much of the blame on Rodgers, though, with as depleted as the Packers’ OL is. He has been sacked an NFL-high 30 times since Week 8, and the Packers have gone just 4-5 over that span. His passer rating over those nine games is just 82, and it was 115.9 over the Pack’s first six games (all of which were victories).
Rodgers accepts blame in some respects, stating “We’re professionals, we have to hold ourselves to a higher standard…everybody has to play better.”
Rodgers’ worst completion percentage of the season came at Minnesota in Week 11, but the Packers still won that game as he threw TD passes to both James Jones and Randall Cobb. The Packers sacked Bridgewater six times in the game, and held RB Adrian Peterson to just 45 yards on 13 attempts.
The Vikings are 1-10-1 in the past 12 meetings against Green Bay, and it is 0-5-1 at Lambeau field with its last win there having come in 2009, back when Brett Favre was still QB of Green Bay. The Vikings also won the AFC North that year, and Bridgewater himself said Green Bay is “a team that is capable of getting hot at this time of the year.” Indeed, the Pack is often at its best when the pressure is highest, and it does not help that it will be playing in its own venue, one of the toughest houses to win at in the NFL.
Green Bay’s defense has been largely to blame, however. It allowed 370 yards or more to both the Oakland Raiders and Cardinals. It has also surrendered 100-plus rushing yards in five straight games, which seems to set the stage for Peterson having another big game. He is 64 yards ahead of Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin in rushing yards and has his eyes set on a third rushing title.
Rodgers is 10-1 against Minnesota in his career with a 120.1 passer rating in those games. He has thrown 28 TDs with just three picks. RB Eddie Lacy has rushed for 534 yards and five TDs in five career games against Minnesota.
Minnesota has won eight straight games when Peterson rushes for 100 yards or more, and getting him involved and attacking Green Bay’s struggling defense is the absolute key to a Vikings’ victory in this game. Even so, it seems with Green Bay seeking to defend its stronghold on the division that it prevails as NFL oddsmakers project.
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