NFL Sunday Picks ATS: Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill has been ice cold for the last three weeks.
Ryan Tannehill has been ice cold for the last three weeks.

IND-MIA
Time: NOON CT
Spread: MIA -2.5
Total: 44

Betting odds c/o Pincle

The 6-8 Indianapolis Colts are technically in the playoff race still, but things could hardly look more bleak. With a 3-4 road record the Colts will travel to face the Miami Dolphins potentially without either Andrew Luck or Matt Hasselback. NFL oddsmakers accordingly favor Miami by 2.5 points in the game which will air at Noon Central on FOX.

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Hasselbeck is expected to play, but how much is anyone’s guess: He is nursing several injuries and the Colts are still without Luck who was expected back but was ruled out due to a lacerated kidney. Hasselbeck performed well in his absence, but his 40 year old body has taken a pounding and he is now pretty beat up. The Colts enjoyed short-lived success with him in the pocket, building a three-game winning streak after he threw for 315 yards and two TDs in a 25-12 win over Tampa Bay in Week 12.

Hasselbeck has descended to reality since then, averaging just 189 passing yards per game while throwing two TDs and three INTs. He had only 147 yards in the 16-10 loss to the Houston Texans last week, and the Texans accordingly snapped a 13-game skid to the Colts while Indianapolis fell one game behind the Texans in the AFC South division standings.

HC Chuck Pagano said his team is going to finish strong, regardless of who saddles up. “We signed up for 16 regular season games, and we’re going to finish. I told them to finish the race,” he said.

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Hasselbeck is fighting a jaw injury he sustained in the fourth quarter last week, but third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst played just one drive before Hasselbeck returned. In addition to the jaw injury, he has faced issues with his back, shoulder, neck and ribs. The Colts have averaged just 250.7 total yards over the three-game losing streak, and it has scored 12 points per game over that span.

WR T.Y. Hilton has caught for over 1,000 yards for the third straight season, but he had just 29 yards on three receptions last week. Hilton said, “The throws have been there, but we just haven’t been calling them.”

Hilton will be returning to his hometown of Miami and he has caught 12 passes for 226 yards and a TD in his two home meetings against the Dolphins. While the Colts are fairly beaten up, Pagano has not conceded this season. The Colts can only do what it can: Win against Miami and the Tennessee Titans while praying on losses from Houston to Tennessee and Jacksonville.

The Colts will have a nice gift in that Miami has the sixth-worst scoring defense in the NFL allowing 25.8 points and 396.8 yards per game, ranking No. 30 in total defense.

Miami gave up 30 points for the fifth time in eight games in the 30-14 loss to the San Diego Chargers and QB Ryan Tannehill seems to have regressed right back to where he was prior to seemingly discovering himself as an NFL quarterback. He has been good for just 179 yards per game over his past three, while managing just two TDs. Prior to the last three games, he had thrown for an average of 271 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs.

The Dolphins could opt to hand the ball off more to Jay Ajayi given that he played in front of Lamar Miller while finishing with 27 yards on six carries, with a TD against San Diego. The Colts are not particularly good at defending the run (No. 25) nor is its pass defense formidable (No. 29). Miami will also be without Mike Pouncey, Koa Misi, Chris McCain and Branden Albert.

The Dolphins ended a four-game losing streak in the series by winning 24-20 on the road in 2013.

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