Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Sunday, October 8, 2017, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas
Opening Line: Kansas City Pick
Current Line: Kansas City -2 (-115)
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening Money Line: Chiefs -122 / Texans +102
Current Money Line: Chiefs -125 / Texans +105

The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s only undefeated team at 4-0 as they travel to the 2-2 Houston Texans Sunday night. The Chiefs lead the AFC West by a game over the idle 3-1 Denver Broncos. Houston is part of a three way tie for first in the AFC South with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Both the Chiefs and Texans won their respective division titles last year.

Kansas City leads the series 5-4 against Houston. The Texans won last year at home 19-12 to snap a three game losing streak against the Chiefs. This is the fourth straight meeting in Houston between the teams including a 30-0 Chiefs victory in the 2016 playoffs. The teams have only played in Kansas City against each other twice.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid and has road wins over the New England Patriots 42-27 and over the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10, plus  home wins over the Philadelphia Eagles 27-20 and Washington Redskins 29-20 last Monday. Kansas City trailed early against Washington 10-0, but rallied to take a 23-20 lead with four seconds left on a 43 yard field goal from rookie kicker Harrison Butker. On the ensuing kickoff, Washington fumbled a lateral and Kansas City ran it in for a far from meaningless touchdown. The Chiefs were 6.5 point favorites against the Redskins and the total was 48. Kansas City is 4-0 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season.

Houston is coached by Bill O’Brien. The Texans have a home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars 29-7 and New England Patriots 36-33. Houston has a road win over the Cincinnati Bengals 13-9 and last week at home over the Tennessee Titans 57-14. The Texans were 2.5 point underdogs against the Titans and the total was 43. Houston is 3-1 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season.

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Kansas City is outscoring teams 31-19 this season. Kansas City is #2 in scoring and #10 in points allowed.  The Chiefs average 405 total yards per game on offense including 242 passing and 164 rushing yards per game. KC is in the top two in total and rushing offense. Kansas City allows 360 total yards per game on defense including 248 passing and 112 rushing. The Chiefs are #26 in yards allowed and #25 in pass defense. The Chiefs are 21/49 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 23/57. Kansas City  has forced 11 sacks and allowed 16 sacks this season. The Chiefs are +5 in turnovers.

Quarterback Alex Smith has completed 76% of his passes for 1,067 yards with 8 touchdowns and no interceptions, and has 18 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked 16 times. He is probable with an ankle injury  Rookie Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback of the future.

Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has 68 carries for 502 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 13 catches for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Charcandrick West has a rushing touchdown along with 22 rushing yards on four carries, and also has 8 catches for 51 yards. Spencer Ware was supposed to be the starter but tore his ACL in the preseason.

Receiver Tyreek Hill has 21 catches for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 24 yards. Tight end Travis Kelce has 21 catches for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Albert Wilson has 14 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. Chris Conley has 8 catches for 129 yards.  Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report along with four offensive linemen.

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Houston is outscoring teams  28-22 this season. Houston is #4 in scoring. The Texans average 333 yards per game on offense including 193 passing and 140 rushing. The Texans are #25 in passing but #5 in rushing. Houston allows 292 yards per game on defense including 196 passing and 96 rushing yards. The Texans are #5 in total defense and are #9 in pass defense.   Houston is 22/55 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 17/51. The Texans have forced 10 sacks and allowed 17 this season. Houston is even in turnovers and has scored 2 defensive touchdowns.

Rookie Quarterback Deshaun Watson has completed 64.9% of his passes for 811 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 19 carries for 148 yards and two touchdowns. He has been sacked 10 times. Watson took over for Tom Savage who was benched after a half in the season opener. He threw for 62 yards and has been sacked seven times

Running back Lamar Miller has 68 carries for 257 yards and a touchdown, along with 10 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown.  D’Onta Foreman has 34 carries for 114 yards, plus 2 catches for 65 yards.

Receiver DeAndre Hopkins has 31 catches for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bruce Ellington has 7 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Ryan Griffin has 7 catches for 74 yards and a touchdowns. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz is out until at least week 10 with a concussion. Eight defensive players and five offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Kansas City is 4-0 ATS after a win, after a cover, after gaining more than 350 yards, 13-3 after rushing for more than 150 yards and in road games, 4-1 against AFC teams, 1-4 in a Sunday game after Monday game, The road team is 4-1 ATS in this series. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in Houston against the Texans.

Houston is 19-6-2 ATS after gaining 350 yards or more, 6-2 against teams with winning road records, 5-2 after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 11-5-1 after scoring more than 30 points, 4-9 after allowing less than 250 yards, 5-15-1 after rushing for more than 150 yards, 2-7 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 1-4 after passing for more than 250 yards, 1-5 after a straight up win, and 1-11 in week five.

Kansas City has developed an explosive offense with some young talent. They are coming up against one of the league’s top defenses though. Houston has been very surprising on offense under the rookie Watson. I like the Texans to pull off the mild upset at home.

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