Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana
Sunday, November 10, 2013, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Opening Line: New Orleans -6 1/2
Current Line: New Orleans -7 (+120)
Opening Total: 52
Current Total: 53 1/2
Opening Money Line: Saints -280 / Cowboys +230
Current Money Line: Saints -250 / Cowboys +210
The 6-2 New Orleans Saints host the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys Sunday night in a battle of NFC division leads. The Saints lead the NFC South by a game over the Carolina Panthers. The Cowboys lead the NFC East by a game over the Philadelphia Eagles.The Saints have won 5 of the 6 meetings against the Cowboys since 2001. New Orleans won last year in Dallas 34-31 in overtime. In that game the Cowboys trailed by 14 points with around 5 minutes left in regulation but tied it up and forced overtime.
Dallas is coached by Jason Garrett. The Cowboys have 4 losses by a total of 14 points, with road losses at the Kansas City Chiefs 17-16, the San Diego Chargers 30-21 and at the Detroit Lions 31-30, along with a home loss to the Denver Broncos 51-48. Dallas has home wins over the New York Giants 36-31, St. Louis Rams 31-7, Washington Redskins 31-16, and Minnesota Vikings last week 27-23, along with a road win at the Philadelphia Eagles 17-3. The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS and the total is 4-5. Dallas was a 10 point favorite against Minnesota and the total was 51.
Minnesota took a 10-6 lead at halftime against Dallas on the road. Dallas scored two touchdowns in 10 seconds early in the third quarter, including a fumble recovery in the end zone to take a 20-10 lead. Minnesota scored with 8:11 in the third to make it 20-17 on a 31 yard touchdown pass from Christian Ponder to tight end Kyle Rudolph. However, the score was costly as Rudolph broke his foot on the play and is out for several weeks.
After a Dallas punt, Minnesota took over at their own 13 with 10:32 left in the fourth. The Vikings drove down the field keyed by a 52 yard run from Adrian Peterson. The Vikings would later take the lead on an 11 yard touchdown run from Peterson where he dragged several members of the Dallas defense into the end zone. However, Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed the first extra point in his career to keep the score 23-20.
The Cowboys’ next possession ended on a Tony Romo interception at the Dallas 41 yard line. The Dallas defense held though and forced a punt with 2:44 left. The Cowboys took over at their own 10. Romo drove the Cowboys down the field and threw the go ahead touchdown pass to Dwayne Harris with 35 seconds left to give the Cowboys a 27-23 lead. Minnesota drove to midfield and had time for a Hail Mary on the last play. However, Ponder’s throw came up short of the end zone and the Cowboys avoided the upset.
Minnesota had 393 total yards including 169 rushing yards. Dallas had 350 total yards including 314 passing yards. The Vikings had two turnovers and the Cowboys had one.
Dallas is outscoring teams 29-23 this season. The Cowboys are #4 in scoring. Dallas is averaging 342.8 total yards including 267.1 passing and 75.7 rushing yards. The Cowboys are #9 in passing and #27 in rushing. On defense, Dallas is allowing 419.2 total yards per game including 305.2 passing and 114 rushing yards. The Cowboys are #31 in total and pass defense. The Cowboys have given up over 400 yards passing in four games this season. Dallas is +10 in turnovers. The Cowboys are 38/107 on third down conversions and have yet to attempt a fourth down conversion this season. Cowboy opponents are 52/133 on third and fourth down conversions. The Cowboys have forced 23 sacks and allowed 19 this season. Dallas has 5 defensive or special teams touchdowns this season and hasn’t allowed any. The Cowboys average 54 penalty yards per game and opponents average 57.
Dallas quarterback Tony Romo has completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,553 yards with 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 14 carries for 40 yards. He has been sacked 19 times this season. Running back DeMarco Murray has 95 carries for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 30 catches for 183 yards. He returned from a knee injury last week after missing the previous two games. Joseph Randle, Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar have been splitting the carries since Murray was injured but none have been effective. Randle and Tanner each have a rushing touchdown.
Receiver Dez Bryant has 51 catches, 705 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is probable with a back injury that reports say is a herniated disc. Tight end Jason Witten has 45 catches, 505 yards and 4 touchdowns. Terrance Williams has 28 catches for 477 yards and 4 touchdowns. Cole Beasley has 25 catches for 243 yards and a touchdown. Miles Austin has 15 catches for 125 yards. He is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Receiver Dwayne Harris has two touchdown catches plus a punt return for a touchdown. He is probable with a hip injury.
The Cowboys’ defense is decimated by injuries especially on the defensive line, with 14 players listed on the injury report, including key players such as DE George Selvie, safety Barry Church, DT Jason Hatcher, DE Ware, LB DeVonte Holloman, CB Morris Claiborne, and DE Anthony Spencer. Holloman, Claiborne and Hatcher are all doubtful or out. Ware is listed as probable after missing the last 3 games with a quad strain.
New Orleans is coached by Sean Payton. The Saints have road losses at the New England Patriots 30-27 and at the New York Jets last week 26-20. New Orleans has home wins over the Atlanta Falcons 23-17, Arizona Cardinals 31-7, Miami Dolphins 38-17, and Buffalo Bills 35-17, along with road wins at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-14 and Chicago Bears 26-18. The Saints are 5-3 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season. New Orleans was a 6 point favorite at the Jets and the total was 45.5.
The Saints took early leads of 7-3 and 14-6 against the Jets last week. However, New York would take a 20-14 lead in halftime. The two teams exchanged field goals in the third quarter to make it 23-17 going into the fourth. The Jets expanded the lead to 26-17 early in the fourth. The Saints kicked a field goal with 3;06 left to make it 26-20. New Orleans kicked off deep and forced a New York three and out. The Jets punted and the Saints took over at their own 19 with 1:58 left. A 16 yard pass completion was nullified by a holding penalty on the Saints, and New Orleans turned the ball over on downs. The Jets took a knee to preserve the upset. The Saints had 407 total yards including 366 passing yards. The Jets had 338 total yards including 198 rushing yards. The game featured 17 combined penalties. New Orleans had the only two turnovers of the game.
New Orleans is outscoring teams 27-18 this season. The Saints are #7 in scoring and #5 in points allowed. New Orleans is averaging 397.4 total yards including 317.6 passing and 79.8 rushing yards. The Saints are #7 in total offense, #3 in passing and #26 in rushing. On defense, New Orleans is allowing 333.1 total yards including 211.9 passing and 121.2 rushing yards. The Saints are #9 in total defense, #5 against the pass and #25 against the rush. New Orleans is +6 in turnovers. The Saints are 48/116 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 35/104. The Saints have forced 26 sacks and allowed 20 this season. New Orleans has allowed one defensive touchdown this season. The saints average 44 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 45.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees has completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,672 yards with 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions along with 32 rushing yards and a touchdown. Running back Pierre Thomas has 79 carries for 277 yards, along with 39 catches for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. Khiry Robinson has 33 carries, 146 yards and a touchdown. Darren Sproles has 30 carries, 118 yards and a touchdown, along with 37 catches, 368 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a concussion.
Tight end Jimmy Graham has 49 catches for 746 yards and 10 touchdowns. He is listed as questionable with elbow and foot injuries, but he has practiced all week. Receiver Kenny Stills has 16 catches, 363 yards and 3 touchdowns. Marques Colston has 27 catches, 342 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a knee injury after missing last week’s game against the Jets. Benjamin Watson, Lance Moore and Robert Meachum all have a touchdown catch. Twelve defensive players are listed on the injury report including five defensive backs.
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in Week 10, 5-1 against teams with winning records, after rushing for 90 yards or less, against NFC teams, and on fieldturf, 4-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards and overall, 6-2-1 against teams with winning home records, 5-2 after a straight up win, and in road games, 4-12 after allowing more than 350 total yards, and 1-6 in November. The underdog has covered the last 8 times in this series. The road team is 4-1 ATS in this series recently.
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 4-0 after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 14-3 against teams with winning road records, 20-6 at home, 6-2 after a straight up loss, 5-2 after failing to cover, 10-4 in week 10 and in November, 5-2 against NFC teams, 20-8 on fieldturf, and 12-5 against teams with winning records. The Saints are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 against the Cowboys.
Both of these teams are near the bottom of the league in rushing. However, Brees and Romo should have success against secondaries that are banged up. The Cowboys are too quick to abandon the run if if doesn’t work, but they need to be more patient against a Saints’ defense that struggles against the run. Both teams have forced a lot of turnovers and that could be the key to they game. I know the Saints are nearly unbeatable in the Superdome, and I will probably regret this later, but I like the Cowboys to pull off the upset on the road in a high scoring shootout.
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