The Titans opened as 3 point favorites, and after the NFL football lines wavered a half-point most books are currently sitting at 3. SportBet and 5 Dimes are posting the game at 2 points, so if you can, grab the Titans at 2. The squares are split nearly 50/50, and sharps haven’t led us either way, probably because of the injuries involved in this contest.
The technical numbers support a play on Tennessee, especially considering the longer history of some situations. Since 1992, against the spread, the Titans organization is 17-5 as a home favorite of 3 points or less, 14-4 against NFC East opponents, and 35-15 in non-conference games. On the flip side, Philadelphia is only 2-7 against the AFC South, 31-42 in non-conference games, and 18-15 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.
Philadelphia is still without Michael Vick, whose banged up ribs have him listed as doubtful. Kevin Kolb has done a nice job filling in, but the Eagles certainly lose a dimension without Vick. Vick has a unique ability to put pressure on a defense with his wheels. He can freeze linebackers or a strong safety to give his receivers an extra step in their routes. Additionally, he forces defenses to prepare differently when they play the Eagles. Preparing for Kolb is similar to preparing for any other quarterback.
Also, DeSean Jackson is out for the game after he received a vicious hit in last week’s game against Atlanta that resulted in a concussion. Jackson is Philly’s primary outside weapon, so that will limit Kolb’s effectiveness and likely his comfort level. Without Vick or Jackson, Philly loses much of its explosiveness. Considering Tennessee’s defense is physical but not overly fast, that really hurts the Eagles in this match up.
At the same time, Tennessee’s quarterback situation is in doubt. Vince Young injured his knee and ankle against Jacksonville this past Monday night, and he’s currently listed as questionable. Young is a winner, and not having him would be a significant loss. Like Vick, Young’s feet are a big plus. He can keep linebackers honest.
Kerry Collins is not a great quarterback, but he is serviceable. He did a nice job in relief against Jacksonville. Collins has the agility of sheetrock, but he’s a better passer than Young. And with Tennessee’s ability to run the ball, having a better passer isn’t all bad. Also, Collins has many years of experience under his belt, which Kolb does not. Look for Collins to play the role of caretaker and manage the game efficiently.
Collins’ job is easier than Kolb’s because of Chris Johnson. Johnson is one of the elite backs in the NFL, and he can win this game on his own. The Philly rush defense has been great the past 2 weeks, but they’ve had their struggles this season.
With the injuries to the Eagles, the Titans have some value with the line at 2 points. If either Vick or Jackson would be available, that would make a big difference because Philly could stretch the field. LeSean McCoy is a good back, but he’s been banged up, too. Lacking their big playmakers, look for Tennessee to cover this spread.
If you’re like most bettors, this has been an awful year for figuring the spread. Do what so many other people are doing – join the winning team at Maddux Sports. The professionals at Maddux have been on an NFL tear this year, currently on a 67% NFL Picks run. Don’t miss out on this week’s easy plays – sign up for premium, guaranteed winning NFL picks.
