The Vikes are currently 1 ½ point favorites on the NFL odds, but what looks more appealing is the total, which opened at 44 points and has gone up to 44 ½. The squares are killing the over, playing it at nearly 95%. But given the situation that the two teams find themselves in, the under looks like the better play and we are calling this is be our fade the public NFL picks in this situation for week 6.
First of all, Brett Favre is going to play on Sunday with a bad case of tendonitis in his elbow. That means one thing – Adrian Peterson. Look for the Vikings to wind up the running game and let the Cowboys have it. They’ll work in some passing plays, of course, but when the Vikings have the ball they’re going to let their workhorse carry the load.
Further, Minnesota has a pretty good defense. Expect Brad Childress to play field position with his offense and let his defense be the deciding factor. The Cowboys were a popular pick last January to upset the Vikings, but the Dallas offense managed only 3 points. And at the time, the Cowboys were playing much better football than they are now. Between the Viking defense and running game, this contest has all the makings for a low scoring affair.
Obviously, there’s something wrong in Dallas. The Cowboys have outgained all four of their opponents, but are 1-3 straight up. That means they’re doing the little things all wrong. One problem has been the red zone, where the Cowboys have been downright awful. But even more than that, this team lacks chemistry. They just don’t play well together. So while the offense has gotten yards, they haven’t been as productive as they should be.
The technical numbers also support a play on the under. Over the past three seasons, Minnesota has played the total 7-13 at home, 10-15 as a favorite, 4-6 against teams with a losing record, and 1-3 against the NFC East. On the flip side, Dallas has played the total 7-12 on the road, 2-5 as an underdog, 1-3 against the NFC North, and 3-10 when the line is +/-3 points. Additionally, Dallas has played two road games so far, and they’ve gone under in each case. The Vikings have played two home games, and they’ve gone under in both, too.
The two defenses have been successful this season – the offenses have been the problem. The Vikes are giving up just 289 total yards and 104 on the ground, while the ‘Boys are yielding only 305 total yards and 102 rushing. Those are actually pretty decent numbers. Look for the offenses to struggle and the defenses to decide this game.
Consider fading this public favorite. With Favre’s bad elbow and Minnesota’s talented running back, they should eat up a lot of clock. The two defenses are playing well enough, and the situational numbers favor a play on the under. The squares have been dumping loads of money on the over, but that looks like the wrong side in this match-up. The under is the play to pay. Good luck with all your bets.
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